Match Info

MLS

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Providence Park (Portland, OR)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Portland Timbers		New England Revolution

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.75	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.75	3.1
	2.18	3.7	3.05	Watch
	2.14	3.95	3.34
				Watch
	2.05	3.75	3.1
	2.19	3.79	3.12	Watch
	2.02	3.7	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.96)	3.77 ↓ (3.8)	3.18 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Timbers
45%

Draw
25.2%

New England Revolution
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

25%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

25.3%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Timbers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

New England Revolution has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Timbers than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New England Revolution than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	21.4%	7.1%

Portland Timbers - New England Revolution Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Portland will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). New England will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portland: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. New England (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - New England (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. New England (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Crepeau M. (G) 29. Mosquera J. 13. Zuparic D. 20. Surman F. 4. Miller K. (C) 24. Ayala D. 80. Ortiz J. 10. Pereira da Costa D. 30. Moreno S. 19. Kelsy K. 23. Smith I.	31. Ivacic A. (G) 15. Bye B. 3. Ceballos B. 2. Fofana M. 4. Beason T. 80. Yusuf A. 8. Polster M. 10. Gil C. 41. Langoni L. 9. Campana L. 25. Miller P.
Substitutes
21. Chara D. 22. Fernandez O. 88. Guerra G. 15. Miller E. 9. Mora F. 41. Pantemis J. (G) 17. Paredes C.	11. Diaz L. 88. Farrell A. 5. Hughes K. 16. Omsberg W. 18. Oyirwoth A. 33. Parisian D. (G) 23. Sands W. 37. Urruti M. 14. Yueill J.
Coaches
Neville P.	Porter C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Smith I. ⚽, Moreno S. (A), Kelsy K. (A2)
35', 1 - 1, Langoni L. ⚽, Gil C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Miller K. ↓, Guerra G. ↑,
71', Ayala D. ↓, Chara D. ↑,
71', Kelsy K. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Pereira da Costa D. ⚽,
74', Langoni L. ↓, Urruti M. ↑,
80', Bye B. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
83', Ortiz J. ↓, Paredes C. ↑,
83', Smith I. ↓, Miller E. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portland won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Portland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Portland is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Portland: Antony (Hamstring Injury) Fory J. (Yellow Cards) Lassiter A. (Hand Injury) Rodriguez J. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in New England: Bono A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Portland won 1 match, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Portland won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Timbers
MLS
28.06.25	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	3:0 ✺
13.06.25	Portland Timbers - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
08.06.25	Portland Timbers - St. Louis City	2:1 ✺
28.05.25	Portland Timbers - Colorado Rapids	2:1 ✺
24.05.25	Orlando City - Portland Timbers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTWWL
- New England Revolution
MLS
28.06.25	New England Revolution - Colorado Rapids	3:3 ✺
25.06.25	New England Revolution - Nashville SC	2:3 ✺
14.06.25	New England Revolution - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
31.05.25	CF Montréal - New England Revolution	0:3 ✺
28.05.25	DC United - New England Revolution	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
26.02.22	Portland Timbers - New England Revolution	2:2
Club Friendly
22.02.20	Portland Timbers - New England Revolution	1:3
MLS
25.09.19	Portland Timbers - New England Revolution	2:2
01.09.18	New England Revolution - Portland Timbers	1:1
02.04.17	Portland Timbers - New England Revolution	1:1
27.04.16	New England Revolution - Portland Timbers	1:1
06.06.15	Portland Timbers - New England Revolution	2:0

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