Match Info

MLS

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Toronto FC		Portland Timbers

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.3
				Watch
	2.88	3.45	2.54
				Watch
	2.88	3.5	2.3
	2.88	3.42	2.49	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (4)	3.39 ↓ (3.4)	2.4 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
32.4%

Draw
28%

Portland Timbers
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.5%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

27.4%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toronto FC's performance.

Portland Timbers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portland Timbers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toronto FC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Timbers than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portland Timbers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Toronto FC - Portland Timbers Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Portland will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portland: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Toronto (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Portland Timbers will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Portland (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johnson S. (G) 5. Long K. 17. Rosted S. 28. Petretta R. 6. Thompson K. 14. Coello A. 23. Dominguez M. 8. Longstaff M. 16. Spicer T. 7. Corbeanu T. 9. Brynhildsen O.	41. Pantemis J. (G) 29. Mosquera J. 13. Zuparic D. 20. Surman F. 27. Fory J. 24. Ayala D. 10. Pereira da Costa D. 21. Chara D. 22. Fernandez O. 9. Mora F. 19. Kelsy K.
Substitutes
77. De Rosario A. (G) 11. Etienne D. 75. Fisher R. 29. Kerr D. 38. Sharp C. 76. Stefanovic L. 74. Sullivan M. 78. Wingo H.	88. Guerra G. 15. Miller E. 30. Moreno S. 25. Muse T. (G) 80. Ortiz J. 17. Paredes C. 23. Smith I.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Neville P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Coello A. ⚽,
43', Zuparic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Fernandez O. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
56', 2 - 0, Spicer T. ⚽, Brynhildsen O. (A),
68', Fory J. 🟨,
69', Spicer T. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,
73', Mora F. ↓, Guerra G. ↑,
73', Chara D. ↓, Paredes C. ↑,
74', Fory J. ↓, Smith I. ↑,
77', Ayala D. 🟨,
85', Brynhildsen O. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
86', Longstaff M. ↓, Sullivan M. ↑,
90', Kelsy K. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 0, Kerr D. ⚽, Etienne D. (A),
90+5', Dominguez M. ↓, Sharp C. ↑,
90+5', Thompson K. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 2.

Recent form of Toronto has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portland has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Toronto: Flores D. (International duty) Franklin K. (Ankle Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Laryea R. (International duty) Osorio J. (International duty)

There will not play in Portland: Antony (Hamstring Injury) Lassiter A. (Hand Injury) McGraw Z. (Back Injury) Rodriguez J. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Bernardeschi F. (Knock) Monlouis Z. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
25.06.25	Toronto FC - New York Red Bulls	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Toronto FC - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
28.05.25	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
24.05.25	Toronto FC - Nashville SC	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	CF Montréal - Toronto FC	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLLW
- Portland Timbers
MLS
13.06.25	Portland Timbers - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
08.06.25	Portland Timbers - St. Louis City	2:1 ✺
28.05.25	Portland Timbers - Colorado Rapids	2:1 ✺
24.05.25	Orlando City - Portland Timbers	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
20.05.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Portland Timbers	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
13.08.22	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	3:1
27.04.19	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	1:2
29.08.18	Portland Timbers - Toronto FC	2:0
12.08.17	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	4:1
01.05.16	Portland Timbers - Toronto FC	2:1
23.05.15	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	1:0
27.09.14	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	3:2

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