Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 4 October 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Porto		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.8	1.75
	4.1	3.75	1.83
	4.3	3.95	1.82	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.83
	4.49	3.97	1.82
	4.2	3.9	1.8
	4.3	3.95	1.79
	4.3	3.95	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (3.81)	3.88 ↑ (3.75)	1.81 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
22.4%

Draw
24.7%

Barcelona
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25.2%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

24.5%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.9%	14%	78.1%

Porto - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (89 of 114 users predict this - 78.07%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.47% – 85.67%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 23. Joao Mario 2. Cardoso F. 4. Carmo D. 18. Wendell 22. Varela A. 6. Eustaquio S. 11. Pepê 28. Baro R. 13. Galeno 9. Taremi M.	1. ter Stegen M. (C) 2. Cancelo J. 4. Araujo R. 23. Kounde J. 3. Balde A. 6. Gavi 18. Romeu O. 22. Gundogan I. 27. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 14. Joao Felix
Substitutes
70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 10. Conceicao F. 19. Danny Namaso 30. Evanilson 20. Franco A. 8. Grujic M. 17. Ivan Jaime 29. Martinez T. 21. Navarro F. 16. Nico 15. Sanchez J.	17. Alonso M. 26. Astralaga A. (G) 30. Casado M. 15. Christensen A. 32. Lopez F. 5. Martinez I. 13. Pena I. (G) 20. Roberto S. 7. Torres F.
Coaches
Conceicao S.	Xavi

Preview

Porto is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Barcelona is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Porto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Barcelona have a series of home games.

In this match Barcelona is a favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Evanilson (Ankle Injury) Gabriel Veron (Muscle Injury) Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Zaidu (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Pedri (Muscle Injury) Raphinha (Hamstring Injury) de Jong F. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Porto: Pepe (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
29.09.23	Benfica - Porto	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Porto - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Shakhtar Donetsk - Porto	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	0:1 ✺
03.09.23	Porto - Arouca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWWT
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.23	Barcelona - Sevilla	1:0 ✺
26.09.23	Mallorca - Barcelona	2:2 ✺
23.09.23	Barcelona - Celta de Vigo	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.23	Barcelona - Royal Antwerp	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
16.09.23	Barcelona - Betis	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWWW

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