Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 19 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Shakhtar Donetsk		Porto

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.8	1.65
	5.1	4.05	1.68	Watch
	5	3.8	1.69
	5.39	4.01	1.68
	4.5	3.7	1.57
	5.05	4.05	1.65
	5	4	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.04 ↑ (4.31)	3.92 ↑ (3.76)	1.66 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
18.8%

Draw
24.2%

Porto
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

25%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

26.3%

56%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	12.2%	76.7%

Shakhtar Donetsk - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 90 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 10 - 11.1%). Porto will win (votes: 69 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 12.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 68% – 85.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Riznyk D. (G) 26. Konoplya Y. 3. Lemkin S. 44. Rakitskyi Y. 25. Miroshi N. 6. Stepanenko T. (C) 11. Zubkov O. 29. Nazaryna Y. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Sikan D. 18. Kelsy K.	99. Costa D. (G) 23. Joao Mario 3. Pepe (C) 4. Carmo D. 12. Zaidu 20. Franco A. 22. Varela A. 6. Eustaquio S. 17. Ivan Jaime 9. Taremi M. 13. Galeno
Substitutes
16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 4. Castillo D. 7. Eguinaldo 13. Gocholeishvili G. 90. Kashchuk O. 32. Kozik E. 8. Kryskiv D. 27. Ocheretko O. 12. Puzankov T. (G) 1. Rudko A. (G) 17. Viunnyk B.	28. Baro R. 70. Borges G. 2. Cardoso F. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 10. Conceicao F. 8. Grujic M. 29. Martinez T. 21. Navarro F. 16. Nico 15. Sanchez J. 18. Wendell
Coaches
van Leeuwen P.	Conceicao S.

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Volksparkstadion.

Porto is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

Porto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Porto is a favorite.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Bondar V. (Collarbone injury) Chygrynskiy D. (Injury) Matviienko M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Danny Namaso (Injury) Evanilson (Ankle Injury) Gabriel Veron (Muscle Injury) Marcano I. (Knee Injury) Pepê (Red Card)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Shakhtar won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Shakhtar won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
16.09.23	Shakhtar Donetsk - Obolon	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Mynai - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:4 ✺
27.08.23	Kolos Kovalivka - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:2 ✺
20.08.23	Kryvbas - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:3 ✺
14.08.23	Shakhtar Donetsk - Oleksandriya	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWTW
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
15.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	0:1 ✺
03.09.23	Porto - Arouca	1:1 ✺
28.08.23	Rio Ave - Porto	1:2 ✺
20.08.23	Porto - Farense	2:1 ✺
14.08.23	Moreirense - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
10.12.14	Porto - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:1
30.09.14	Shakhtar Donetsk - Porto	2:2

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