Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
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Italy	DAZN Italia
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Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2


	Porto		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.5	9	Watch
	1.35	4.7	8.3
	1.38	4.92	9.1
	1.37	4.86	9	Watch
	1.36	4.5	8
	1.4	4.92	8.95	Watch
	1.37	4.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.39)	4.7 ↑ (4.67)	8.69 ↑ (7.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
69%

Draw
20.1%

Gil Vicente
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

20.2%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

19.2%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	10%	3.3%

Porto - Gil Vicente Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.5 - Porto (2.13) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 3. Thiago Silva 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 8. Froholdt V. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.	99. Figueira Daniel (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 6. Ze Carlos 95. Garcia S. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 7. Toure T. 89. Varela G.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 77. Pietuszewski O. 22. Varela A. 7. William Gomes	8. Bamba M. 17. Bermejo 29. Carlos Eduardo 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 20. Hevertton S. 30. Lucao (G) 27. Moreira A.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Murilo de Souza 🟨,
36', Ze Carlos 🟨,
36', Bednarek J. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Samu (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Peixoto C. 🟨,
61', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
61', Sainz B. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
68', Ze Carlos ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
68', Varela G. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
69', Fernandez M. 🟥,
75', 2 - 0, Fernandes M. ⚽, Pepê (A),
76', Pepê ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
77', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
77', Toure T. ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
77', Esteves L. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
82', Froholdt V. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, William Gomes ⚽, Rosario P. (A),
87', Murilo de Souza ↓, Bermejo ↑,
90+4', Kiwior J. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 3.

Porto has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gil Vicente has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gil Vicente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Perez T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Caseres F. (Yellow Cards) Moreira A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Mutombo J. (Inactive)

We predict that Porto will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 40:14. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24
7	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Porto - the odds 1.39 are the expected chance of winning is 67.84%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Porto	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
18.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Porto	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
14.01.26	Porto - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.01.26	Santa Clara - Porto	0:1 ✺
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWWWW
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
17.01.26	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.08.25	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:2
19.01.25	Gil Vicente - Porto	3:1
10.08.24	Porto - Gil Vicente	3:0
25.02.24	Gil Vicente - Porto	1:1
23.09.23	Porto - Gil Vicente	2:1
26.02.23	Porto - Gil Vicente	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
21.12.22	Porto - Gil Vicente	2:0

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