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Porto vs Nottingham Forest Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Play Sports 5, Sporza, Sporza, VOOsport World 1, VRT Canvas
Bolivia	ESPN 3, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 3, ESPN
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 5, CANAL+ Sport, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, Tubi TV
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Canal+, Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV5, Sport TV+
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360, VTVcab


	Porto		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4.2
	2	3.3	4.2
	2.02	3.31	4.35
	2.03	3.34	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4
	1.95	3.38	4.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.1)	3.29 ↓ (3.42)	4.25 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
48.3%

Draw
29.1%

Nottingham Forest
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

27.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

27.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83%	9.6%	7.4%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Porto (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (77 of 92 users predict this - 83.7%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.15% – 91.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 3. Thiago Silva 5. Bednarek J. 12. Zaidu 42. Fofana S. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 29. Moffi T. 17. Sainz B.	27. Ortega S. (G) 16. Dominguez N. 44. Abbott Z. 5. Murillo 4. Morato 24. McAtee J. 22. Yates R. (C) 10. Gibbs-White M. 29. Bakwa D. 11. Wood Ch. 14. Ndoye D.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 24. Costa J. (G) 8. Froholdt V. 27. Gul D. 4. Kiwior J. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 21. Prpic D. 58. Silva T. 22. Varela A.	34. Aina O. 65. Hanks J. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 19. Igor Jesus 20. Lucca L. 31. Milenkovic N. 6. Sangare I. 26. Sels M. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 51. Whitehall A. 3. Williams N.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Pereira V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, William Gomes ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Fernandes M. (Own goal),
15', Veiga G. 🟨,
19', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Murillo ↓, Milenkovic N. ↑,
46', Wood Ch. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
59', Sainz B. ↓, Pepê ↑,
59', Moffi T. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
59', Veiga G. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
61', Bakwa D. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
61', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
74', Fofana S. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
74', McAtee J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nottingham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Porto might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Porto: Karamoh Y. (Inactive) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pietuszewski O. (Inactive) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Anderson E. (Yellow Cards) Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Boly W. (Knee Injury) Cunha (Foot Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Netz L. (Inactive) Savona N. (Knee Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Mora R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Wood Ch. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Porto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

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Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Nottingham: 21.01%

Last Results with these Odds

Nottingham Forest - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 26.93%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Porto - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Braga - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWW
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
22.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Midtjylland - Nottingham Forest	1:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
15.03.26	Nottingham Forest - Fulham	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Nottingham Forest - Midtjylland	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0

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