Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Porto		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4.2
	2	3.3	4.2
	2.02	3.31	4.35
	2.03	3.34	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4
	1.95	3.38	4.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.1)	3.29 ↓ (3.42)	4.25 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
48.3%

Draw
29.1%

Nottingham Forest
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

27.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

27.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83%	9.6%	7.4%

Porto - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Porto (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (77 of 92 users predict this - 83.7%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.15% – 91.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 3. Thiago Silva 5. Bednarek J. 12. Zaidu 42. Fofana S. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes 29. Moffi T. 17. Sainz B.	27. Ortega S. (G) 16. Dominguez N. 44. Abbott Z. 5. Murillo 4. Morato 24. McAtee J. 22. Yates R. (C) 10. Gibbs-White M. 29. Bakwa D. 11. Wood Ch. 14. Ndoye D.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 24. Costa J. (G) 8. Froholdt V. 27. Gul D. 4. Kiwior J. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 21. Prpic D. 58. Silva T. 22. Varela A.	34. Aina O. 65. Hanks J. 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 19. Igor Jesus 20. Lucca L. 31. Milenkovic N. 6. Sangare I. 26. Sels M. (G) 61. Sinclair J. 51. Whitehall A. 3. Williams N.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Pereira V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, William Gomes ⚽, Veiga G. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Fernandes M. (Own goal),
15', Veiga G. 🟨,
19', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Murillo ↓, Milenkovic N. ↑,
46', Wood Ch. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
59', Sainz B. ↓, Pepê ↑,
59', Moffi T. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
59', Veiga G. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
61', Bakwa D. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
61', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
74', Fofana S. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
74', McAtee J. ↓, Sangare I. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nottingham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nottingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Porto might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Porto: Karamoh Y. (Inactive) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pietuszewski O. (Inactive) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Anderson E. (Yellow Cards) Awoniyi T. (Inactive) Boly W. (Knee Injury) Cunha (Foot Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Netz L. (Inactive) Savona N. (Knee Injury) da Silva Moreira E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Mora R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Wood Ch. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Porto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Nottingham Forest - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 26.93%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Porto - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Braga - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWW
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
22.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Midtjylland - Nottingham Forest	1:3 penalties ✺
English Premier League
15.03.26	Nottingham Forest - Fulham	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Nottingham Forest - Midtjylland	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Nottingham Forest - Porto	2:0

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