Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 27

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
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Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
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Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV3
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Slovenia	SportKlub 3
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Turkey	Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
Usa	Fubo Latino
World	Onefootball


	Braga		Porto

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.32	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.2
	2.98	3.05	2.42	Watch
	3.2	3.19	2.47
	3.15	3.21	2.39	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.38	3.21	2.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (3.49)	3.12 ↓ (3.36)	2.35 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
29.8%

Draw
30.2%

Porto
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

28.1%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

28.8%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	4.8%	90.5%

Braga - Porto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Braga (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Porto (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 4. Niakate S. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 2. Gomez V. 8. Moutinho J. 27. Grillitsch F. 50. Rodrigues D. 21. Horta R. (C) 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P.	99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 12. Zaidu 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G. 11. Pepê 27. Gul D. 77. Pietuszewski O.
Substitutes
20. Dorgeles M. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 29. Gorby 5. Lelo L. 77. Martinez G. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 12. Sa T. (G) 34. Tiknaz D. E.	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 42. Fofana S. 29. Moffi T. 74. Moura F. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 3. Thiago Silva 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Vicens C.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
30', Varela A. 🟨,
34', Niakate S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', Veiga G. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
54', Zalazar R. 🟨,
56', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
56', Gul D. ↓, Moffi T. ↑,
63', Niakate S. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
63', Rodrigues D. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
67', Varela A. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
67', Veiga G. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, William Gomes ⚽, Pietuszewski O. (A),
73', Rosario P. 🟨,
74', Moffi T. 🟨,
78', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Fofana S. ⚽, Froholdt V. (A),
80', Fofana S. 🟨,
86', Moutinho J. ↓, Gorby ↑,
86', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
86', Gomez V. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
90+6', Gorby 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Porto is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Braga: Barisic A. (Muscle Injury) Bellaarouch A. (Inactive) Vitor Carvalho (Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Mora R. (Thigh Injury) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
18.03.26	Braga - Ferencvárosi	4:0 ✺
12.03.26	Ferencvárosi - Braga	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.03.26	Braga - Sporting Lisbon	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Nacional - Braga	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLTWW
- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
03.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.11.25	Porto - Braga	2:1
08.03.25	Braga - Porto	1:0
06.10.24	Porto - Braga	2:1
18.05.24	Braga - Porto	0:1
14.01.24	Porto - Braga	2:0
Taça de Portugal
04.06.23	Braga - Porto	0:2
Liga Portugal
19.03.23	Braga - Porto	0:0

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