Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	1.38	5	8
	1.38	5.25	7.25
	1.43	4.9	7.3
	1.43	5.1	8
	1.41	5	7.61	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7.5
	1.39	5.09	8.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.38)	4.99 ↑ (4.88)	7.75 ↑ (7.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
68.4%

Draw
19.2%

Nottingham Forest
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

19.3%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

18.3%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The chances for Nottingham Forest have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.6%	5.7%	5.7%

Manchester City - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Nottingham (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Man City (1.11) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -1 - Man City (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Man City (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Man City (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Man City (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (78 of 88 users predict this - 88.64%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.01% – 95.27%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (26 of 26 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 32 - 94.1%). Nottingham (votes: 2 - 5.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. 15. Guehi M. 21. Ait-Nouri R. 16. Rodri 10. Cherki R. 20. Silva B. (C) 47. Foden P. 42. Semenyo A. 9. Haaland E.	26. Sels M. (G) 23. Cunha 31. Milenkovic N. 5. Murillo 34. Aina O. 6. Sangare I. 8. Anderson E. 3. Williams N. 16. Dominguez N. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 19. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 11. Doku J. 45. Khusanov A. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	9. Awoniyi T. 18. Gunn A. (G) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 21. Hutchinson O. 24. McAtee J. 4. Morato 14. Ndoye D. 25. Netz L. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Pereira V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Semenyo A. ⚽, Cherki R. (A),
45+1', Sangare I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 1 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Igor Jesus (A),
60', Murillo 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Rodri ⚽, Ait-Nouri R. (A),
63', Milenkovic N. 🟨,
63', Dominguez N. ↓, Hudson-Odoi C. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Anderson E. ⚽, Hudson-Odoi C. (A),
77', Ait-Nouri R. ↓, Khusanov A. ↑,
77', Foden P. ↓, Doku J. ↑,
79', Igor Jesus ↓, Awoniyi T. ↑,
82', Cherki R. ↓, Savinho ↑,
90', Williams N. ↓, Morato ↑,
90', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Yates R. ↑,
90+4', Sels M. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 4.

Man City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nottingham is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Man City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Boly W. (Knee Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Ortega S. (Calf Injury) Savona N. (Knee Injury) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Alleyne M. (Knock) Haaland E. (Injury) O'Reilly N. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Man City will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Man City won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:3. (average 2.3:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:0. (average 3.7:0).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Manchester City: 17.65% Nottingham: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13:5	8	15
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Manchester City - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Manchester City - Fulham	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Liverpool - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWW
- Nottingham Forest
English Premier League
01.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
27.12.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:2
English FA Cup
27.04.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
08.03.25	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:0
04.12.24	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	3:0
28.04.24	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	0:2
23.09.23	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:0
18.02.23	Nottingham Forest - Manchester City	1:1

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