Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Canal+, RTL
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Sporza, Sporza, VRT Canvas
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Magenta Sport, RTL, RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255, Sky Sport MIX
Kenya	Gotv
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Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Claro Sports
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Canal+, Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV5, Sport TV+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport 1
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South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 11, M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	VIX App


	Porto		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.4	3.6	2.75
	2.55	3.6	2.72
	2.58	3.58	2.8
	2.51	3.41	2.81	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	2.45	3.51	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.1)	3.49 ↓ (3.57)	2.79 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
38.4%

Draw
27.4%

Stuttgart
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Porto's form might have worsened.

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stuttgart's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Porto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stuttgart, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.5%	20.9%	32.6%

Porto - Stuttgart Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 20 - 47.6%). Stuttgart will win (votes: 14 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 32.5% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 1 - 25%). Stuttgart (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Porto (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Porto (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Stuttgart (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 3. Thiago Silva 5. Bednarek J. 12. Zaidu 42. Fofana S. 13. Rosario P. 86. Mora R. 7. William Gomes 29. Moffi T. 17. Sainz B.	33. Nubel A. (G) 14. Jaquez L. 24. Chabot J. 3. Hendriks R. 7. Mittelstadt M. 6. Stiller A. 16. Karazor A. (C) 11. El Khannouss B. 26. Undav D. 10. Fuhrich C. 9. Demirovic E.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 24. Costa J. (G) 52. Fernandes M. 8. Froholdt V. 27. Gul D. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 21. Prpic D. 49. Sousa G. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G.	2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 35. Catovic M. 44. Hellstern F. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 28. Nartey N. 8. Tomas T. 4. Vagnoman J.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Rosario P. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, William Gomes ⚽, Sainz B. (A),
23', Zaidu 🟨,
25', Mora R. 🟨,
35', Demirovic E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mora R. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
58', Zaidu ↓, Kiwior J. ↑,
58', William Gomes ↓, Pepê ↑,
61', Mittelstadt M. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
62', Karazor A. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
63', Jaquez L. 🟨,
66', Sainz B. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Froholdt V. ⚽,
73', Fofana S. ↓, Varela A. ↑,
76', Nartey N. 🟨,
77', Nartey N. 🟨,
78', Fuhrich C. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
78', Undav D. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
79', Stiller A. ↓, Andres C. ↑,
89', Assignon L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

Porto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stuttgart has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Porto: Karamoh Y. (Inactive) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Pietuszewski O. (Inactive) Samu (Knee Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stuttgart: Darvich N. (Inactive) Drljaca S. (Inactive) Jeremy Arevalo (Inactive) Jovanovic L. (Back Injury) Stenzel P. (Inactive) Zagadou D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Leweling J. (Muscle Injury) Vagnoman J. (Thigh Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Porto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
03.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTLW
- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Stuttgart - Wolfsburg	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Stuttgart - Celtic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2

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