Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Final

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Kleber Andrade (Cariacica)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TV Record


	Porto Vitória		Serra

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.92	3.45
	2.05	2.72	4
	2	3.01	3.83	Watch
	2	2.9	3.5
	2.05	2.76	3.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.02)	2.86 ↓ (3.13)	3.75 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto Vitória
44.3%

Draw
31.6%

Serra
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.9%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

30.5%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto Vitória has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Serra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto Vitória than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra than the current prediction. (+1%)

Porto Vitória - Serra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Mariano (G) 5. Athirson 10. Matheus Firmino 4. Matheus Guedes 8. Matheus Santos 9. Pedro Felipe 3. Renie 7. Rian Felipe 2. Taleco 6. Thallyson 11. Victor Rangel	1. Pedro Henrique (G) 25. Chico 10. Dandan 14. Edson Mika 24. Knupp 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri
Substitutes
19. Adriano Bispo 12. Aydhan Martins (G) 25. Cardoso K. 15. Ferrugem 18. Gama 13. Joao Victor 17. Josue 14. Lucas Peres 21. Luiz Henrique 20. Vini Moura 16. Wesllen Reis 22. Wilson	22. Brizuela O. 12. Dudu 8. Fabio Magrao 23. Gabriel Palma (G) 19. Hygor 13. Jherlison 20. Luan 16. Marco Damasceno 2. Marcus Diniz 7. Pepeu 18. Rickelmi 17. Wendel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Rian Felipe ⚽,
12', 2 - 0, Victor Rangel ⚽,
25', 2 - 1, Knupp ⚽,
27', Rian Felipe 🟨,
30', Jherlison 🟨,
40', Athirson ↓, Gama ↑,
44', Pedro Felipe 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 🟥,
90+7', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto Vitória won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Porto Vitória could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Porto Vitória won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto Vitória won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto Vitória
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
14.03.26	Vitória ES - Porto Vitória	1:6 penalties ✺
08.03.26	Porto Vitória - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Avaí - Porto Vitória	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
28.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco AC ES	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WLLWT
- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
15.03.26	Serra - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:2 ✺
26.02.26	Serra - Noroeste	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Noroeste - Serra	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
15.07.25	Porto Vitória - Serra	3:0
08.07.25	Serra - Porto Vitória	1:2
04.06.25	Serra - Porto Vitória	2:3
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
21.02.24	Porto Vitória - Serra	2:1
03.03.23	Serra - Porto Vitória	1:1

Porto Vitória - Serra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide