Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 11

Date: 20 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio do Caninde (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Bellote L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Max, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, TNT, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Portuguesa		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.55	2.85	2.8
	2.54	3.1	3
	2.57	3.01	2.91	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.46	3.05	2.81
	2.55	2.85	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.73)	2.99 ↓ (3.22)	2.85 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa
36.6%

Draw
30.9%

São Bernardo
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.7%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.7%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Bernardo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Portuguesa - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Santos (C) 23. Gustavo Talles 3. Gustavo Henrique 13. Eduardo Biazus 6. Lucas Hipolito 15. Taua 8. Barba 7. Jaja 10. Cristiano 19. Maceio 9. Renan	1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel (C) 13. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 31. Lucas Lima 17. Romisson 6. Arthur Henrique 8. Leo Jaba 77. Guilherme Queiroz 11. Daniel Fabricio
Substitutes
2. Alex Silva 12. Bruno Bertinato (G) 20. Daniel Junior 18. Denis 11. Everton 5. Fernando Henrique 17. Henrique Almeida 25. Igor Torres 14. Matheus Nunes 16. Pedro Henrique 21. Rildo 4. Robson	20. Emerson Santos 87. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho 21. Hugo Sanches 5. Kadi Silva 22. Leo Duarte 30. Lucas Rian 25. Pedro Carrerette 4. Rafael Forster 9. Rodolfo 84. Vanderlei (G) 10. Vitinho
Coaches
Cauan de Almeida	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Helder Maciel 🟨,
23', Cristiano ↓, Rildo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Romisson ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
58', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Rildo ⚽, Barba (A),
65', Leo Jaba 🟨,
69', Eduardo Biazus 🟨,
71', Renan 🟨,
73', Jaja ↓, Igor Torres ↑,
73', Renan ↓, Henrique Almeida ↑,
78', Arthur Henrique 🟨,
79', Arthur Henrique ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
79', Daniel Fabricio ↓, Rodolfo ↑,
80', Rildo 🟨,
83', Rildo ↓, Matheus Nunes ↑,
84', Maceio ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
88', Augusto ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Leo Jaba (Pen),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lipscomb won 1.

Lipscomb is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

North Alabama is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Lipscomb is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Lipscomb won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 1009:974 (average 77.6:74.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Lipscomb won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 504:454 (average 84:75.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.25	Portuguesa - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
12.02.25	Água Santa - Portuguesa	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Portuguesa - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
04.02.25	Velo Clube - Portuguesa	2:2 ✺
01.02.25	Portuguesa - Botafogo SP	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTWTW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.25	São Bernardo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.24	São Bernardo - Portuguesa	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
20.04.21	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	1:1
Brazilian Copa Paulista
16.12.20	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	3:0
12.12.20	São Bernardo - Portuguesa	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
12.02.20	São Bernardo - Portuguesa	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
30.03.15	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	0:0

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