Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 34

Date: 18 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.2	7	13	Watch
	1.17	6.9	14.5
	1.21	7.3	13.92
	1.33	5.25	8.63	Watch
	1.19	7.17	15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)	6.72 ↑ (5.25)	13.01 ↑ (8.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
78.4%

Draw
14.2%

Sport Recife
7.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

18%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.6%

17.2%

10.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botafogo RJ's performance.

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Botafogo (1.58) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH -1 - Botafogo (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 2. Vitinho 57. David Ricardo 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles 35. Danilo 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 10. Savarino J. 7. Artur 9. Ramos C. 47. Jeffinho	1. Gabriel (G) 13. Aderlan 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 21. Lucas Kal 16. Igor Carius 36. Luan Candido 14. Rivera C. 10. Lucas Lima 38. Leo Pereira 17. Matheusinho 92. Pablo
Substitutes
25. Allan 98. Arthur Cabral 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 6. Cuiabano 26. Gabriel Bahia 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 21. Marcal 8. Montoro A. 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G)	42. Adriano Sousa (G) 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 27. Oliveira S. 7. Paciencia G. 9. Ramirez I. 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Lucena C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Leo Pereira ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
24', Alex Telles 🟨,
28', 0 - 2, Rafael Thyere ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
30', 1 - 2, Artur ⚽, Alex Telles (A),
39', Ramos C. ↓, Barria K. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jeffinho ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
46', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
58', 2 - 2, Barria K. ⚽, Danilo (A),
61', Lucas Kal 🟨,
65', Gabriel 🟨,
67', Alex Telles ↓, Cuiabano ↑,
67', Matheusinho ↓, Hyoran ↑,
68', Lucas Kal ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
78', Savarino J. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
78', Pablo ↓, Romarinho ↑,
83', Aderlan 🟨,
87', Igor Carius 🟨,
90', Lucas Lima ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
90', Leo Pereira ↓, Kevyson ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Barria K. ⚽, Danilo (A),
90+6', Barria K. 🟨,
90+7', Ancelotti D. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 3.

Botafogo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recife is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Recife has had a series of home games.

In this match, Botafogo is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Barrera J. (Muscle Injury) Bastos (Knee Injury) Kaio (Knee Injury) Matheus Martins (Muscle Injury) Montoro A. (Shoulder Injury) Nathan Fernandes (Arm Injury) Neto (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Inactive) Hereda (Health problems) Ze Lucas (International duty) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Pedro Augusto (Hip Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.11.25	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Santos	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWTTW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
15.11.25	Sport Recife - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	2:4 ✺
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Sport Recife - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.07.25	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	0:1
05.02.21	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	0:1
11.10.20	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	1:2
25.08.18	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	2:0
23.04.18	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	1:1
08.11.17	Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ	1:2
17.07.17	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	2:1

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