Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 38

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.7	4	Watch
	1.88	3.7	3.7
	1.9	3.72	3.95
	1.87	3.8	3.91	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4
	1.87	3.69	4.22	Watch
	1.9	3.66	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.7)	3.67 ↓ (3.85)	3.97 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
50.5%

Draw
25.7%

Fortaleza
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24.5%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

25.5%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fortaleza (3.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raul Steffens (G) 2. Vitinho 21. Marcal 26. Gabriel Bahia 13. Alex Telles 25. Allan 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 14. Barrera J. 8. Montoro A. 7. Artur 98. Arthur Cabral	12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 34. Gazal 3. Avila G. 16. Diogo Barbosa 30. Pierre 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 22. Yago Pikachu (C) 27. Bareiro A. 26. Breno Lopes
Substitutes
20. Barboza A. 37. Barria K. 58. Caua Zappelini 6. Cuiabano 47. Jeffinho 59. Kauan Toledo 64. Marquinhos 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 9. Ramos C. 32. Rhyan (G) 23. Rodriguez S.	19. Allanzinho 18. Deyverson 13. Kuscevic B. 91. Lucas Crispim 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 5. Pereira M. 29. Rodrigo 2. Tinga 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Weverson
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Palermo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Bareiro A. (A),
40', Mancuso E. 🟨,
45+4', Bareiro A. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Montoro A. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Yago Pikachu ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Arthur Cabral ⚽, Vitinho (A),
55', 2 - 2, Bareiro A. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Bareiro A. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
68', Artur ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
68', Alex Telles ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
70', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Weverson ↑,
79', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
82', Breno Lopes ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
82', Pierre ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Marcal ⚽, Rodriguez S. (A),
90', Montoro A. ↓, Kauan Toledo ↑,
90', Barrera J. ↓, Newton ↑,
90+1', Kauan Toledo 🟨,
90+1', Rodrigo 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 2, Ponte M. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 3.

Botafogo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Botafogo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Barboza A. (Knee Injury) Bastos (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Danilo (Injury) David Ricardo (Red Card) Kaio (Knee Injury) Leo Linck (Inactive) Matheus Martins (Muscle Injury) Neto (Thigh Injury) Savarino J. (Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bareiro A. (Yellow Cards) Bruno Pacheco (Injury) Herrera J. (Yellow Cards) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Leite H. (Injury) Lucca Prior (Overload)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Marinho (Ankle Injury) Pochettino T. (Injury) Rodrigo (Knee Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
04.12.25	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Corinthians - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
18.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Vitória Salvador - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTWWT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
03.12.25	Fortaleza - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
26.11.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
20.11.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:3 ✺
12.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5
31.08.24	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	2:0
12.05.24	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	1:1
23.11.23	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	2:2
10.06.23	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	2:0
04.09.22	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	1:3
15.05.22	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	3:1

Upcoming Matches