Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 33

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255, Sky Sport Calcio


	Pro Patria		Atalanta U23

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.05	2.6
	2.78	3.01	2.68	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.6	3.26	2.65	Watch
	2.7	3.05	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.56)	3.05 ↓ (3.17)	2.61 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
34.1%

Draw
30.3%

Atalanta U23
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

29.3%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

29.4%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Atalanta U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (-1%)

Pro Patria - Atalanta U23 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rovida W. (G) 98. Coccolo L. 13. Alcibiade R. 4. Reggiori P. 28. Somma M. 6. Mehic A. 25. Ferri D. 2. Barlocco L. 11. Pitou J. 31. Terrani G. 29. Toci E.	1. Pardel P. (G) 15. Obric R. 3. Del Lungo T. 37. Navarro A. 66. Bergonzi F. 8. Gyabuaa M. 10. Panada S. 20. Ceresoli A. 9. De Nipoti T. 26. Alessio F. 99. Vlahovic V.
Substitutes
5. Bashi E. 22. Bongini L. (G) 27. Cavalli T. 14. Citterio G. 7. Curatolo D. 75. Mallamo A. 10. Nicco G. 8. Palazzi A. 18. Piran L. 12. Pratelli L. (G) 20. Renault C. 32. Rocco D. 30. Vaglica G.	34. Artesani N. 33. Bernasconi L. 30. Bertini T. (G) 4. Berto G. 31. Cassa F. 13. Comi P. 14. Ghislandi D. 82. Lonardo E. 6. Masi A. 32. Mencaraglia F. 5. Pounga D. K. 25. Scheffer M. 93. Soppy B. 11. Vavassori D. 12. Vismara P. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Toci E. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Obric R. ⚽,
44', Mehic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Terrani G. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
56', Navarro A. ↓, Bernasconi L. ↑,
57', Pitou J. 🟨,
65', Alessio F. ↓, Cassa F. ↑,
65', Panada S. ↓, Pounga D. K. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Bergonzi F. ⚽,
74', Pitou J. ↓, Rocco D. ↑,
75', Barlocco L. ↓, Piran L. ↑,
87', Toci E. ↓, Curatolo D. ↑,
87', Somma M. ↓, Nicco G. ↑,
88', Bergonzi F. ↓, Berto G. ↑,
89', Vlahovic V. ↓, Lonardo E. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Pro Patria: Beretta G. (Yellow Cards) Curatolo D. (Inactive) Lombardoni M. (Inactive) Sassaro A. (Injury) Travaglini C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Atalanta U23: Armstrong D. (Injury) Manzoni A. (Inactive) Tornaghi P. (Inactive)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Pro Patria won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Pro Patria won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Last Results with these Odds

Pro Patria - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.2%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
30.03.25	Virtus Verona - Pro Patria	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Triestina - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
13.03.25	Pro Patria - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Trento - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Pro Patria - Caldiero Terme	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLWTT
- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group A
30.03.25	Atalanta U23 - Padova	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Atalanta U23 - FeralpiSalò	4:1 ✺
13.03.25	Pro Vercelli - Atalanta U23	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Atalanta U23 - Vicenza Virtus	2:2 ✺
03.03.25	Renate - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
09.11.24	Atalanta U23 - Pro Patria	2:1
07.04.24	Atalanta U23 - Pro Patria	4:1
02.12.23	Pro Patria - Atalanta U23	1:0

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