Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 16

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
World	FIFA+


	Triestina		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.88	3.15	4.15
	1.98	3.24	4.34
	1.88	3.51	3.82	Watch
	1.89	3.06	4.07	Watch
	1.83	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.69)	3.23 ↓ (3.58)	4.18 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
49.1%

Draw
28.7%

Pro Patria
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

25.6%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

24.9%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Triestina's form might have worsened.

Pro Patria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Triestina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Triestina - Pro Patria Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Triestina will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Triestina (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Triestina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matosevic K. (G) 28. Pedicillo L. 6. Moretti A. 14. Anzolin M. 26. D'Amore F. 33. Crnigoj D. 17. Jonsson K. 7. Ionita A. 11. Gunduz T. 29. Kljajic N. 9. Vertainen E.	1. Rovida W. (G) 4. Reggiori P. 19. Travaglini C. 39. Motolese M. 93. Dimarco C. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 40. Schiro T. 27. Giudici L. 11. Renelus B. 56. Ganz S.
Substitutes
22. Borriello F. (G) 10. D'Urso C. 25. Ellertsson M. P. 27. Faggioli A. 13. Kiyine S. 5. Kosijer S. 30. Neri F. (G) 3. Palma L. 16. Vicario J. 15. Voca I.	13. Aliata T. 80. Bagatti N. 14. Citterio G. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 20. Mora C. 7. Orfei A. 21. Ricordi T. 9. Udoh K. 6. Viti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 0 - 1, Renelus B. ⚽,
59', Crnigoj D. ↓, Voca I. ↑,
59', Kljajic N. ↓, Vicario J. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Ionita A. ⚽,
66', Dimarco C. 🟨,
67', Renelus B. ↓, Udoh K. ↑,
67', Schiro T. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
68', Ganz S. ↓, Bagatti N. ↑,
70', Bagatti N. 🟥,
77', Pedicillo L. ↓, Faggioli A. ↑,
77', Dimarco C. ↓, Mora C. ↑,
83', Ionita A. ↓, D'Urso C. ↑,
85', Jonsson K. 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Jonsson K. ⚽,
90', Reggiori P. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 3.

Triestina has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pro Patria's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Triestina is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Triestina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
22.11.25	Virtus Verona - Triestina	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Triestina - Trento	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Pro Vercelli - Triestina	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Triestina - Brescia	0:1 ✺
27.10.25	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Triestina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLLL
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
21.11.25	Pro Patria - Pergolettese	3:1 ✺
16.11.25	Lecco - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Pro Patria - Lumezzane	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Alcione - Pro Patria	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Pro Patria - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
16.03.25	Triestina - Pro Patria	1:0
03.11.24	Pro Patria - Triestina	0:0
04.02.24	Triestina - Pro Patria	1:2
24.09.23	Pro Patria - Triestina	0:3
12.03.23	Triestina - Pro Patria	2:0
06.11.22	Pro Patria - Triestina	2:1
Italian Serie C Group B
04.05.22	Triestina - Pro Patria	2:1

Triestina - Pro Patria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide