Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 29

Date: 3 March 2025, Monday

Location: Mino Favini (Meda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Renate		Atalanta U23

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.95	2.13
	3.52	3.05	2.25
	3.36	3.13	2.24	Watch
	3.25	3	2.15
	3.27	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.25	2.95	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.38)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)	2.16 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renate
27.6%

Draw
30.1%

Atalanta U23
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.7%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

25.6%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Renate's form might have worsened.

Atalanta U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atalanta U23's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renate than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Renate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta U23 than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Renate - Atalanta U23 Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Renate will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Atalanta U23 will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Nobile T. (G) 41. Spedalieri J. 5. Auriletto S. (C) 21. Riviera C. 2. Eleuteri A. 8. Esposito G. 25. Vassallo F. 32. Ghezzi A. 77. De Leo L. 24. Bocalon R. 10. Kolaj A.	12. Vismara P. (G) 37. Navarro A. 15. Obric R. 66. Bergonzi F. 3. Del Lungo T. 8. Gyabuaa M. 10. Panada S. 33. Bernasconi L. 25. Scheffer M. 11. Vavassori D. 99. Vlahovic V.
Substitutes
7. Anghileri M. 17. Bonetti A. 14. Cali M. 11. Delcarro A. 27. Di Nolfo F. 3. Gardoni P. 20. Marchetti M. 44. Mazzaroppi S. 1. Ombra F. (G) 50. Pellizzari S. 37. Plescia V. 31. Satriano A. 23. Siega N.	26. Alessio F. 34. Artesani N. 30. Bertini T. (G) 4. Berto G. 20. Ceresoli A. 13. Comi P. 14. Ghislandi D. 82. Lonardo E. 6. Masi A. 32. Mencaraglia F. 1. Pardel P. (G) 5. Pounga D. K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Bocalon R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Bernasconi L. ↓, Ceresoli A. ↑,
56', Bergonzi F. ↓, Lonardo E. ↑,
65', Kolaj A. ↓, Cali M. ↑,
65', De Leo L. ↓, Plescia V. ↑,
69', Panada S. (Pen),
70', Eleuteri A. 🟨,
71', Vassallo F. ↓, Delcarro A. ↑,
72', Vlahovic V. ↓, Alessio F. ↑,
72', Scheffer M. ↓, Ghislandi D. ↑,
78', Ghezzi A. 🟨,
79', Ghezzi A. ↓, Anghileri M. ↑,
79', Esposito G. ↓, Bonetti A. ↑,
90+2', Delcarro A. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 12 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Renate is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Atalanta U23 has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Renate could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Renate won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Renate won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta U23 - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.57%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
23.02.25	Novara - Renate	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Renate - Lecco	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	AlbinoLeffe - Renate	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Renate - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Renate - Virtus Verona	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLLL
- Atalanta U23
Italian Serie C Group A
24.02.25	Atalanta U23 - AlbinoLeffe	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Giana Erminio - Atalanta U23	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Atalanta U23 - Virtus Verona	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Pergolettese - Atalanta U23	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atalanta U23 - Lumezzane	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
19.10.24	Atalanta U23 - Renate	4:0
21.02.24	Atalanta U23 - Renate	2:2
20.09.23	Renate - Atalanta U23	1:0

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