Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	SportsEngine Play
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	Progreso		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3	Watch
	2.37	3.00	2.87
	2.32	2.92	3
	2.48	3.17	3.21
	2.36	3.11	3.14	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3
	2.36	2.95	2.97	Watch
	2.37	3	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.68)	3.02 ↓ (3.03)	3.03 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
39%

Draw
30.5%

Cerro
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

30.9%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

32.9%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Progreso - Cerro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacchia R. (G) 24. Alvarez E. 15. Martin M. 13. Carroso H. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. (C) 25. Cristobal R. 7. Ocampo A. 10. Lopez N. 17. De Leon F. 14. Viana L.	12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 22. Suarez D. 16. Guasone J. 21. Arena N. 17. Rodriguez G. 5. Macelli A. (C) 31. Amaro J. 10. Aleman B. 7. Severo A. 70. Leonardo Pais 28. Cambon A.
Substitutes
11. Acosta N. 21. Bruschi S. 30. Codagnone A. 4. Couture L. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 3. Garcia F. 8. Juambeltz M. 6. Saravia M. 18. Silva G. 16. Trasante G.	6. Bregante F. 25. Denis D. (G) 32. Mederos R. 8. Miranda A. 9. Morales B. 35. Nongoy P. 33. Rijo T. 14. Rodriguez E. 19. Sosa E. 20. Villar M.
Coaches
Silva T.	Cappuccio A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Cambon A. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Cambon A. ⚽,
34', Ocampo A. 🟨,
37', Macelli A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ocampo A. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
46', Alvarez E. ↓, Juambeltz M. ↑,
50', Cristobal R. 🟨,
57', Aleman B. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
57', Severo A. ↓, Bregante F. ↑,
62', Cristobal R. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
62', De Leon F. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
63', Cambon A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
69', Suarez D. 🟨,
73', 1 - 2, Juambeltz M. ⚽,
78', Leonardo Pais ↓, Nongoy P. ↑,
79', Bregante F. 🟨,
79', Cougo A. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
88', 1 - 3, Amaro J. ⚽,
90+1', Rodriguez E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.89%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Progreso - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLL
- CA Cerro
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Boston River - Cerro	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
14.03.26	Cerro - Progreso	0:1
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0
06.04.25	Cerro - Progreso	0:0
14.09.24	Progreso - Cerro	0:1
01.03.24	Cerro - Progreso	2:3
Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.09.22	Cerro - Progreso	1:1
18.06.22	Progreso - Cerro	0:0

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