Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla)

Referee: Quintero D. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Disney+, ESPN, FOX One, VIX
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Puebla		Santos Laguna

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	3.2
	2.10	3.50	3.25
	2.02	3.45	3.35
	2.17	3.72	3.37
	2.09	3.65	3.32	Watch
	2.14	3.6	3.25
	2.17	3.63	3.28	Watch
	2.1	3.55	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.63)	3.59 ↑ (3.5)	3.28 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla
44.7%

Draw
26.4%

Santos Laguna
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

26.4%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

25.8%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Puebla's performance.

Santos Laguna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos Laguna might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Puebla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos Laguna than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos Laguna could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Puebla - Santos Laguna Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Puebla will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Santos Laguna will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Puebla: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos Laguna (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Santos Laguna (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Santos Laguna (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos Laguna (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Gutierrez D. (G) 12. Moreno I. 5. Almada F. 4. Vargas J. (C) 7. Monarrez F. 27. Garnica B. 26. Velasco K. 16. Ramirez A. 24. Organista A. 22. Baltazar C. 29. Mustre E.	1. Acevedo C. (G) 3. Cuevas M. 18. Pardo F. (C) 25. Sanchez F. 17. Echeverria E. 8. Mariscal Murra S. 5. Lopez A. 7. Gonzalez D. 21. Villalba F. 10. Bullaude E. 19. Aguirre E.
Substitutes
9. Hernandez L. 3. Herrera A. 2. Leyva A. 34. Lucas Camilo 8. Moreno Villegas O. F. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 21. Sanabria S. 10. Tomas M. 15. Villa O.	4. Abella J. 6. Guemez J. 33. Holguin H. (G) 188. Lopez M. F. 15. Mancha J. 14. Orona E. 77. Palacios K. 28. Perez J. 22. Picon K. 26. Sordo R.
Coaches
Espinoza G.	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Almada F. (Own goal),
9', 1 - 1, Mustre E. ⚽, Baltazar C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gonzalez D. ↓, Sordo R. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Bullaude E. ⚽, Villalba F. (A),
54', 2 - 2, Mustre E. ⚽, Vargas J. (A),
62', 3 - 2, Baltazar C. ⚽, Garnica B. (A),
67', Aguirre E. ↓, Palacios K. ↑,
67', Echeverria E. ↓, Picon K. ↑,
74', Baltazar C. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
80', Lopez A. ↓, Mancha J. ↑,
80', Garnica B. ↓, Lucas Camilo ↑,
89', Organista A. ↓, Sanabria S. ↑,
89', Monarrez F. ↓, Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↑,
89', Mustre E. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
90+1', Picon K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Recently, Puebla has had a series of away games.

Puebla might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Puebla: Maestro I. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Santos Laguna: Amione B. (Knee Injury) Di Yorio L. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Navarro E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Santos Laguna: Lozano C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12:13	-1	15
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10:15	-5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
17.08.26	Pachuca - Puebla	2:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	San Diego - Puebla	3:2 ✺
06.08.26	Portland Timbers - Puebla	5:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
31.07.26	Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Cruz Azul - Puebla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WLLTL
- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.26	Santos Laguna - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	Philadelphia Union - Santos Laguna	0:2 ✺
06.08.26	New York City - Santos Laguna	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.08.26	Club América - Santos Laguna	3:0 ✺
25.07.26	Santos Laguna - Atlas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
22.03.26	Santos Laguna - Puebla	2:1
25.07.25	Puebla - Santos Laguna	1:0
02.02.25	Santos Laguna - Puebla	0:2
05.07.24	Puebla - Santos Laguna	1:0
30.01.24	Santos Laguna - Puebla	3:0
07.07.23	Puebla - Santos Laguna	2:3
26.02.23	Santos Laguna - Puebla	3:2

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