Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Pure Swansea		Caerphilly Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.95	4.20
	1.60	4.34	4.25
	1.64	4.24	4.45	Watch
	1.57	4.25	4.20
	1.60	4.79	4.66
	1.59	3.95	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.45)	4.25 ↓ (4.55)	4.33 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pure Swansea
57.3%

Draw
21.5%

Caerphilly Athletic
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

20.4%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

19.7%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pure Swansea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pure Swansea's form might have worsened.

Caerphilly Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caerphilly Athletic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pure Swansea than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pure Swansea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerphilly Athletic than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caerphilly Athletic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pure Swansea - Caerphilly Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Johnston T. ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Copp K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 3 - 0, Williams D. ⚽,
56', 3 - 1, Humphries E. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Cymru Premier and 11th).

Pure Swansea has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Caerphilly have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Pure Swansea is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Pure Swansea in today's match, at odds of 1.58.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	8	6	2	0	25:6	19	20
14	Caerphilly	9	2	2	5	9:17	-8	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pure Swansea FC
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pure Swansea	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Pure Swansea - Pontardawe Town	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Pure Swansea - Pontypridd United	4:4 ✺
21.08.26	Caerau Ely - Pure Swansea	1:5 ✺
15.08.26	Pure Swansea - Llanelli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWTWW
- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
25.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerphilly Athletic	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Ynyshir Albions	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLTWW

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