The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Pärnu Vaprus 32.6%
Draw 26%
Narva Trans 41.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.1%
26.3%
34.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.4%
25.1%
36.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pärnu Vaprus's form might have worsened.
Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Narva Trans's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Narva Trans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (C) 28. Lipp M. 66. Nomm U. 15. Aloe K. 90. Sild J. 8. Pajo T. 20. Valja H. 24. Villota M. 10. Viidas S. 17. Kapper S. 42. Limberg M.
30. Venteo I. (G) 4. Ivanyushin A. 14. Filatov A. 5. Campagna C. 3. Berardozzi T. 6. Slein G. (C) 24. Betancor Y. 48. Awusi W. 47. Baljabkin N. 8. Agaptsev S. 10. Gero A.
Substitutes
5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 74. Kutsar K. 14. Orm R. 9. Poder J. 26. Vahemets O. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M.
88. Besigirskis A. 9. Doke J. 19. Elysee 12. Eriks Santos 28. Miranda da Silva K. 66. Petkus E. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 1. Zahharov M. (G) 22. Zuravljov E.
Coaches
Prins I.
Campana D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Baljabkin N. ⚽, Gero A. (A),
32', 0 - 2, Baljabkin N. ⚽, Agaptsev S. (A),
38', Aloe K. 🟨,
39', 1 - 2, Kapper S. ⚽, Viidas S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Filatov A. 🟨,
65', 2 - 2, Kapper S. ⚽,
70', Slein G. ↓, Zuravljov E. ↑,
70', Baljabkin N. ↓, Besigirskis A. ↑,
73', Viidas S. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
79', Betancor Y. ↓, Doke J. ↑,
79', Agaptsev S. ↓, Elysee ↑,
82', Villota M. ↓, Orm R. ↑,
82', Nomm U. ↓, Villota M. ↑,
85', Awusi W. ↓, Poliakov D. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 1.
In recent outings, Pärnu Vaprus has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Narva Trans is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pärnu Vaprus has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:30 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Pärnu Vaprus against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 12:15 goals (averaging 1.2:1.5 per game).
Estonia
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Nomm O. (C) 
Venteo I. (G) 
Ivanyushin A. 
Campagna C. 
Berardozzi T. 
Awusi W. 
Gero A. 
Doke J. 
Elysee 
Eriks Santos 
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