Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 16 February 2023, Thursday

Location: Azersun Arena (Baku)

Referee: Al-Hakim M. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	RTBF
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Qarabağ Agdam		Gent

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.3
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	2.18	3.3	3.4
	2.08	3.2	3.15
	2.27	3.23	3.53
	2.05	3.25	3.25
	2.15	3.34	3.42
	2.31	3.25	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.12)	3.24 ↓ (3.34)	3.34 ↑ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
42.9%

Draw
29%

Gent
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27.5%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

The chances for Gent have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gent than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	10.5%	18.4%

Qarabağ Agdam - Gent Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 27 - 71.1%). Gent will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qarabağ: 56.7% – 85.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Qarabağ has currently - , has not chance of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd, was already of knockout phase, has a chance of round of 16 (37%), has a small chance of qtrs (15%), has a small chance of semis (6%), has a very small chance of final (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gent has currently - 8, has not chance of 1st, was already of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd, was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (63%), has a chance of qtrs (31%), has a small chance of semis (15%), has a small chance of final (6%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has quality 53, importance 32, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

Qarabağ will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Qarabağ: Medina K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Gent: Lemajic D. (Muscle Injury) Odjidja-Ofoe V. (Knee Injury) Piatkowski K. (Injury) Samoise M. (Muscle Injury) Tissoudali T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Qarabağ: Huseynov A. (Injury) Mahammadaliyev S. (Broken Hand)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
11.02.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Sabah	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Kapaz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
31.01.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Shamakhi	3:1 ✺
25.01.23	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
18.01.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Qarabağ Agdam	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TTWWL
- AA Gent
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
11.02.23	Westerlo - Gent	3:3 ✺
05.02.23	Gent - Genk	2:3 ✺
29.01.23	Cercle Brugge - Gent	3:2 ✺
22.01.23	Sint-Truidense - Gent	0:3 ✺
19.01.23	Gent - Charleroi	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLWT

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