Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Conference League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Planet Group Arena (Gent)

Referee: D'hondt L. (Bel)


	Gent		Genk

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.6	Watch
	2.9	3.75	2.25
	2.02	3.5	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.7	3.72
	2.09	3.45	3.5
	2	3.4	3.3
	2.04	3.61	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.96)	3.57 ↓ (3.63)	3.35 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gent
44.6%

Draw
26.8%

Genk
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

26%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

25.5%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gent's performance.

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Genk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gent than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gent that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Genk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	10%	23.3%

Gent - Genk Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Gent will win (votes: 20 - 69%). Genk will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gent: 52.2% – 85.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gent (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Gent (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gent (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Roef D. (C) 4. Hashioka D. 22. Lopes L. 44. Van Der Heyden S. 20. Araujo T. 15. Ito A. 27. De Vlieger T. 17. Delorge-Knieper M. 8. Skoras M. 7. Kanga W. 37. Kadri A.	28. Brughmans L. (G) 65. Akpan C. 24. Sattlberger N. 44. Kongolo J. 34. Palacios A. 8. Heynen B. (C) 21. Bangoura I. 7. Steuckers J. 38. Heymans D. 30. Yokoyama A. 23. Bibout A.
Substitutes
75. Cisse I. 56. Diallo M. 45. Goore H. 24. Hong Hyun-Seok 10. Omgba A. 30. Peersman K. (G) 59. Seck E. H. 11. Sonko M. 57. Volckaert M.	56. De Wannemacker A. 99. Erabi J. 86. Haroun K. 63. Henry Z. 26. Lawal T. (G) 29. Mirisola R. 79. Nzoko D. 2. Pierre K. 14. Sor Y.
Coaches
De Mil R.	Hayen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Kongolo J. 🟨,
64', Bibout A. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
64', Steuckers J. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
66', Ito A. ↓, Sonko M. ↑,
72', Kadri A. ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
73', Araujo T. 🟨,
86', Palacios A. ↓, Pierre K. ↑,
86', Bangoura I. 🟨,
88', Kanga W. ↓, Cisse I. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
96', 0 - 1, Mirisola R. ⚽, Pierre K. (A),
102', Heymans D. ↓, De Wannemacker A. ↑,
105', Van Der Heyden S. 🟨,
106', Skoras M. ↓, Omgba A. ↑,
106', Delorge-Knieper M. ↓, Goore H. ↑,
106', Hashioka D. ↓, Seck E. H. ↑,
118', Kongolo J. 🟨,
119', 1 - 1, De Vlieger T. (Penalty Awarded),
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, De Vlieger T. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Heynen B. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Goore H. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Mirisola R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Lopes L. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Sattlberger N. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Omgba A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Yokoyama A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Sonko M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, De Wannemacker A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gent won 0.

Recent form of Gent has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Genk has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gent may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gent: Ayinde A. (Injury) De Meyer G. (Shoulder Injury) Essaouabi H. (Inactive) Paskotsi M. (Muscle Injury) Samoise M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Genk: Adedeji-Sternberg N. (Injury) Karetsas K. (Ankle Injury) Smets M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gent: Dean M. (Inactive) Goore H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Genk: El Ouahdi Z. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gent won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gent won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.1:1.6).

Outrights of Belgian Jupiler Pro League for now

Gent: 10.67% Genk: 4.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Gent	8	7	1	0	15:4	11	22
6	Genk	8	3	3	2	16:12	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Genk - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.19%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Gent
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.05.26	Club Brugge - Gent	5:0 ✺
21.05.26	Gent - Saint-Gilloise	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Sint-Truidense - Gent	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Gent - Anderlecht	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	KV Mechelen - Gent	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTTL
- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
23.05.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	0:2 ✺
19.05.26	Genk - Royal Antwerp	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Standard Liège - Genk	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Genk - Westerlo	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Charleroi - Genk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
01.03.26	Genk - Gent	3:0
09.11.25	Gent - Genk	1:1
18.05.25	Gent - Genk	1:4
30.03.25	Genk - Gent	4:0
23.02.25	Genk - Gent	0:0
27.10.24	Gent - Genk	0:2
02.06.24	Genk - Gent	0:1

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