Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 10 August 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Reinshreiber R. (Isr)


	Qarabağ Agdam		HJK

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	5.25
	1.44	4.6	6.75
	1.46	4.3	6.75
	1.43	4.5	7
	1.47	4.68	7.05
	1.36	4.2	6.5
	1.44	4.65	6.65
	1.46	4.7	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.61)	4.52 ↑ (3.89)	6.62 ↑ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
65.1%

Draw
20.7%

HJK
14.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.9%

24.4%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

23.8%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Qarabağ Agdam's performance.

HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Qarabağ Agdam that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75.6%	4.9%	19.5%

Qarabağ Agdam - HJK Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 31 - 75.6%). HJK will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qarabağ: 62.5% – 88.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mahammadaliyev S. (C) 27. Bayramov T. 13. Mustafazada B. 81. Medina K. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 6. Romao J. 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 7. Benzia Y. 10. Zoubir A. 19. Xhixha R.	1. Ost J. (G) 4. Toivio J. 15. Tenho M. (C) 22. Raitala J. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 24. Kanellopoulos G. 10. Lingman L. 23. Soiri P. 37. Tanaka A. 9. Radulovic B. 18. Keskinen T.
Substitutes
90. Akhundzade N. 66. Andrade P. 11. Diakhaby A. 23. Gugeshashvili L. (G) 55. Huseynov B. 18. Juninho 17. Keyta H. 4. Mammadov R. 5. Medvedev M. 83. Quliyev N. 89. Ramazanov A. (G) 20. Richard Almeyda	5. Da Graca K. 6. Halme A. 3. Hamalainen N. 56. Hetemaj P. 7. Hostikka S. 85. Maenpaa N. (G) 2. Ollila T. 29. Olusanya A. 78. Ramula A. (G) 8. Rogic F.
Coaches
Gurbanov G.	Korkeakunnas T.

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Recent matches Qarabağ is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

HJK is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Qarabağ could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Qarabağ is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
05.08.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Zira	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
26.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
19.07.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Lincoln Red Imps	4:0 ✺
11.07.23	Lincoln Red Imps - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTLWW
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.08.23	HJK - IFK Mariehamn	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Molde - HJK	2:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
29.07.23	SJK - HJK	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.07.23	HJK - Molde	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
22.07.23	HJK - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.11.26	VPS Vaasa - HJK	✺
29.10.26	Inter Turku - HJK	✺

Qarabağ Agdam - HJK