Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio La Corregidora (Querétaro)

Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Querétaro		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	5	3.5	1.71	Watch
	4.7	3.55	1.72	Watch
	5.05	3.75	1.75
	4.72	3.54	1.73	Watch
	4.3	3.55	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (4.23)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)	1.74 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Querétaro
19.8%

Draw
26.3%

Chivas Guadalajara
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

25.9%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

25.4%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Querétaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Querétaro than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Querétaro (3.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chivas Guadalajara will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chivas Guadalajara will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Querétaro (votes: 1 - 20%). Guadalajara (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Allison G. (G) 17. Venegas F. 9. Reyes D. (C) 6. Homenchenko S. 26. Perlaza J. 16. Zapata A. 12. Gomez J. 28. Bogarin R. 13. Armenta E. 10. Rodriguez L. 31. Avila A.	1. Rangel R. (G) 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 17. Romo L. (C) 21. Castillo J. 28. Gonzalez F. 37. Ledezma R. 5. Gonzalez B. 6. Govea O. 10. Alvarez E. 226. Sandoval S. 34. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
8. Barrera P. 55. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 37. Coronel M. 4. Garcia C. 1. Hernandez J. (G) 7. Jhojan Julio 3. Manzanarez O. 2. Mendoza Martin O. I. 19. Perez A. 15. Villanueva C.	23. Aguirre D. 25. Alvarado R. 26. Camberos H. 7. Cowell C. 15. Gutierrez E. 31. Padilla Y. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Mora B.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Avila A. ⚽,
44', Ledezma R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Avila A. ↓, Jhojan Julio ↑,
46', Govea O. ↓, Alvarado R. ↑,
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
59', Alvarez E. ↓, Camberos H. ↑,
59', Castillo J. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
63', Gonzalez B. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
69', Rodriguez L. ↓, Coronel M. ↑,
69', Gomez J. ↓, Mendoza Martin O. I. ↑,
72', Zapata A. 🟨,
78', Perlaza J. ↓, Villanueva C. ↑,
81', Allison G. 🟨,
90+7', Ledezma R. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 0.

Querétaro has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Guadalajara is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Mozo A. (Knee Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Querétaro: Gruezo E. (Knee Injury) Lertora F. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 2 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Querétaro won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Querétaro FC
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Toluca - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Querétaro - Puebla	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Querétaro - Tigres UANL	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Cruz Azul - Querétaro	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Pachuca - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.7 LWLTW
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
01.02.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	1:1
16.07.24	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2
20.04.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	2:0
31.10.23	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2
05.02.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	1:1
27.07.22	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2
22.01.22	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	1:1

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