Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 1

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	NBC Universo, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo


	Chivas Guadalajara		Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.70	3.80	Watch
	1.98	3.50	3.50
	2.02	3.60	3.30	Watch
	2.02	3.77	3.85
	2.28	3.53	3.02
	1.94	3.60	3.80
	1.93	3.73	3.93	Watch
	1.93	3.65	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.18)	3.64 ↑ (3.5)	3.6 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
47.6%

Draw
26.1%

Toluca
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guadalajara: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rangel R. (G) 37. Ledezma R. 23. Aguirre D. 7. Romo L. (C) 3. Campillo Del Campo D. 5. Gonzalez B. 6. Govea O. 28. Gonzalez F. 19. Castaneda K. 25. Alvarado R. 9. Sepulveda A.	22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 29. Diaz Price J.
Substitutes
33. Carrillo J. 2. Castillo J. 24. Gomez M. 34. Gonzalez A. 11. Gutierrez B. 17. Marin R. 18. Perez J. 16. Rey L. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G)	24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 191. Carrillo C. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 7. Guzman V. 11. Helinho 13. Luan
Coaches
Milito G.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Romero F. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Vega A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Castaneda K. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
50', Sepulveda A. 🟥,
54', Alvarado R. 🟨,
56', Ledezma R. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
59', Gutierrez E. ↓, Helinho ↑,
61', Gallardo J. 🟨,
68', Govea O. ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
70', Vega A. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
74', 0 - 2, Gallardo J. ⚽, Helinho (A),
86', Campillo Del Campo D. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
86', Aguirre D. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
87', Castro N. ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
87', Angulo J. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
90+6', Carrillo J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0.

Guadalajara will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Guadalajara: Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Virgen O. (Leg Injury) del Villar E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 5 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19

Last Results with these Odds

Chivas Guadalajara - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.57%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Correcaminos UAT - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
16.05.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
13.05.26	Cruz Azul - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLTWL
- Deportivo Toluca
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Cancún - Toluca	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
30.05.26	Toluca - Tigres UANL	2:1 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
10.05.26	Pachuca - Toluca	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
06.05.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	4:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
03.05.26	Toluca - Pachuca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
28.02.26	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3
15.02.25	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1
06.07.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:0
11.05.24	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0
08.05.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:0
30.01.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	3:2

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