Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Corregidora (Querétaro)

Referee: Arce V. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Querétaro		Puebla

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.3	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.55
	2.98	3.25	2.32
	3.15	3.39	2.4
	2.99	3.01	2.52	Watch
	2.89	3.22	2.4	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.52)	3.23 ↓ (3.42)	2.43 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Querétaro
32.3%

Draw
29.1%

Puebla
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.9%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

25.9%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Querétaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Querétaro than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Querétaro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Querétaro - Puebla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Querétaro (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Querétaro (votes: 1 - 50%). Puebla (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Allison G. (G) 12. Gomez J. 9. Reyes D. (C) 6. Homenchenko S. 17. Venegas F. 16. Zapata A. 7. Jhojan Julio 28. Bogarin R. 55. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 10. Rodriguez L. 31. Avila A.	1. Gonzalez J. (C) 24. Organista A. 2. Fedorco J. 6. Diaz N. 7. Monarrez F. 15. Guerra E. 18. Gamarra P. 14. Rivas J. 192. Navarro E. 19. Marin R. 11. Gomez E.
Substitutes
13. Armenta E. 8. Barrera P. 4. Garcia C. 1. Hernandez J. (G) 14. Hernandez J. 2. Mendoza Martin O. I. 19. Perez A. 26. Perlaza J. 23. Robles J. 15. Villanueva C.	22. Baltazar C. 27. Garnica B. 191. Hernandez B. 17. Lozano E. 12. Moreno I. 4. Orona E. 25. Portales W. 8. Ramirez M. 30. Robles A. 33. Rodriguez J. (G)
Coaches
Mora B.	Cristante H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Venegas F. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Marin R. ⚽, Diaz N. (A),
43', Diaz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
46', Venegas F. ↓, Perlaza J. ↑,
54', Perez A. ↓, Barrera P. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Avila A. ⚽,
60', 2 - 1, Avila A. ⚽, Perlaza J. (A),
63', Navarro E. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
76', Marin R. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
76', Rivas J. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Rodriguez L. ⚽,
78', Avila A. ↓, Armenta E. ↑,
89', Jhojan Julio ↓, Robles J. ↑,
90+1', Zapata A. ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
90+1', Gomez E. ↓, Robles A. ↑,
90+1', Organista A. ↓, Orona E. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 2.

Querétaro is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Puebla has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Querétaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Querétaro: Coronel M. (Red Card) Gruezo E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L. (Knee Injury) Pachuca Martinez J. R. (International duty)

There are questionable in Querétaro: Garcia C. (Knee Injury) Lertora F. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Monarrez F. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Querétaro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Querétaro FC
Mexican Liga MX
28.09.25	Querétaro - Tigres UANL	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Cruz Azul - Querétaro	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Pachuca - Querétaro	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Querétaro - Monterrey	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Club León - Querétaro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 LTWLL
- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Puebla - Pachuca	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Toluca - Puebla	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Puebla - Monterrey	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
02.03.25	Querétaro - Puebla	2:0
13.09.24	Puebla - Querétaro	2:1
23.02.24	Puebla - Querétaro	0:2
17.09.23	Querétaro - Puebla	1:1
13.01.23	Puebla - Querétaro	2:0
01.09.22	Querétaro - Puebla	1:1
06.02.22	Querétaro - Puebla	0:2

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