Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Hernandez Andrade K. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Caliente TV, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Toluca		Puebla

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.25	8	Watch
	1.35	5	7.5
	1.32	5.4	7.9
	1.32	5.84	9.35
	1.34	4.94	8.67	Watch
	1.3	4.6	7.5
	1.38	5.28	8.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.29)	5.19 ↓ (5.54)	8.14 ↓ (8.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toluca
70.4%

Draw
18.1%

Puebla
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72%

16.7%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Toluca - Puebla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Toluca (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (C) 2. Barbosa D. 20. Gallardo J. 14. Ruiz M. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 10. Angulo J. 5. Romero F. 31. Morales R. 9. Vega A. 8. Castro N.	1. Gonzalez J. (C) 14. Rivas J. 6. Diaz N. 18. Gamarra P. 7. Monarrez F. 2. Fedorco J. 24. Organista A. 4. Orona E. 11. Gomez E. 17. Lozano E. 192. Navarro E.
Substitutes
35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 250. Estrada J. 16. Herrera H. 17. Isais M. 19. Simon S. 23. Virgen O.	32. Araos A. 22. Baltazar C. 10. Castillo R. 27. Garnica B. 21. Gonzalez O. 12. Moreno I. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 3. Rey L. 30. Robles A. 33. Rodriguez J. (G)
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Cristante H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Pereira F. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', Rivas J. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
55', Gomez E. ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
63', Navarro E. 🟨,
69', Castro N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
71', Organista A. ↓, Gonzalez O. ↑,
71', Gamarra P. ↓, Rey L. ↑,
76', Navarro E. ↓, Araos A. ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Gallardo J. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
80', Angulo J. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
80', Morales R. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Monarrez F. (Pen),
89', 3 - 1, Virgen O. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
90+1', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
90+1', Vega A. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.

Recent performances by Toluca have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Puebla is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Toluca is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)

There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Guerra E. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
29.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Cruz Azul - Toluca	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
20.08.25	Toluca - Orlando City	0:1 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.25	Toluca - UNAM	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLTW
- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
29.08.25	Puebla - Monterrey	2:4 ✺
24.08.25	UNAM - Puebla	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
20.08.25	Seattle Sounders - Puebla	1:0 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
15.08.25	Puebla - Atlético San Luis	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Tigres UANL - Puebla	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
14.03.25	Puebla - Toluca	0:3
22.10.24	Toluca - Puebla	5:0
26.01.24	Puebla - Toluca	1:1
31.10.23	Toluca - Puebla	0:1
07.04.23	Puebla - Toluca	1:2
02.08.22	Toluca - Puebla	1:1
03.04.22	Toluca - Puebla	2:1

Upcoming Matches