Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes


	Necaxa		Puebla

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.75	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.3
	1.96	3.50	3.45	Watch
	2.08	3.74	3.57
	2.04	3.69	3.45	Watch
	2.03	3.65	3.50
	2.01	3.54	3.41	Watch
	2.00	3.60	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.92)	3.63 ↓ (3.65)	3.44 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
46.7%

Draw
25.9%

Puebla
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

25.2%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

24.4%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Necaxa - Puebla Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Puebla will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jimenez L. (G) 5. Naves 33. Martinez R. 3. Oliveros A. (C) 13. Gonzalez O. 16. Pedraza P. 8. Faravelli L. 14. Zaleta M. 21. Espindola M. 10. Ruiz J. 9. Carranza J.	28. Gutierrez D. (G) 12. Moreno I. 5. Almada F. 4. Vargas J. (C) 7. Monarrez F. 24. Organista A. 21. Sanabria S. 27. Garnica B. 26. Velasco K. 22. Baltazar C. 8. Moreno Villegas O. F.
Substitutes
1. Andrade C. (G) 17. Cortez R. 6. Leyva D. 20. Mendez F. 4. Pena A. 99. Rodriguez E. 7. Rosero K. 11. Torres Patino J. P. 90. Valencia J. 88. Vargas C.	195. de la Rosa A. 3. Herrera A. 2. Leyva A. 34. Lucas Camilo 19. Maestro I. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 16. Ramirez A. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 10. Tomas M. 15. Villa O.
Coaches
Varini M.	Espinoza G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Vargas J. 🟨,
45+1', Monarrez F. 🟨,
45+1', Martinez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gonzalez O. ↓, Rosero K. ↑,
46', Zaleta M. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
46', Moreno Villegas O. F. ↓, Maestro I. ↑,
46', Monarrez F. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
49', Baltazar C. 🟨,
62', Velasco K. ↓, Tomas M. ↑,
68', Espindola M. ↓, Torres Patino J. P. ↑,
75', Faravelli L. ↓, Leyva D. ↑,
81', Garnica B. ↓, Lucas Camilo ↑,
86', Pedraza P. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
89', Baltazar C. ↓, Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Tomas M. ⚽, Organista A. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Necaxa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Puebla has had a series of away games.

Necaxa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Necaxa: Tello I. (Inactive) Vargas C. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Puebla: Maestro I. (Thigh Injury) Navarro E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12:13	-1	15
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
05.09.26	Tigres UANL - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Necaxa - Cruz Azul	1:3 ✺
23.08.26	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
17.08.26	Necaxa - Club León	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
13.08.26	New York City - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TLTLW
- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
29.08.26	Club América - Puebla	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Puebla - Santos Laguna	3:2 ✺
17.08.26	Pachuca - Puebla	2:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	San Diego - Puebla	3:2 ✺
06.08.26	Portland Timbers - Puebla	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
13.03.26	Puebla - Necaxa	0:0
19.09.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:0
18.04.25	Puebla - Necaxa	0:1
13.07.24	Necaxa - Puebla	4:1
19.01.24	Puebla - Necaxa	1:2
08.10.23	Necaxa - Puebla	1:2
14.04.23	Necaxa - Puebla	1:1

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