Match Info

Challenger Pro League - Round 18

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade de la Neuville (Charleroi)

Referee: Jacoby A. (Bel)


	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne		Lommel

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.08
	3.22	3.91	2.06
	3.14	3.84	2.06	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.1
	3.1	3.44	2.06	Watch
	3.1	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↓ (4.15)	3.58 ↓ (3.73)	2.05 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne
29.4%

Draw
25.7%

Lommel
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

24.6%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

24.1%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne's performance.

Lommel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lommel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lommel than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lommel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

ROC de Charleroi Marchienne - Lommel Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. ROCCM will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Lommel will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lommel: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - ROCCM (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - ROCCM (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lommel will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. ROCCM (votes: 2 - 40%). Lommel (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Herrerin I. (C) 5. Thea A. 28. Spago E. 3. Ndedi Kegne K. J. 77. Ferrara L. 10. Ion R. 17. Cachbach M. 11. Florica L. 12. Ramalho J. 8. Lake T. 81. Dailly N.	1. Ivezic N. (G) 93. Vancsa Z. 13. Banguera Riascos J. A. 5. Wouters D. 79. De Grand S. 15. Schoofs L. (C) 6. Pelupessy J. 18. Lopez L. 10. Reyners T. 30. Seuntjens R. 9. van Duiven J.
Substitutes
18. Berberi R. 7. Cisse M. 38. Diallo T. 4. Jahic H. 88. Kari S. 6. Kis K. 13. Medfai M. 2. Sarkic O. 40. Van Hecke M. (G)	3. Eyoma T. 17. Montano J. 34. Oware H. 55. Ramundo M. (G) 73. Reumers A. 8. Rommens N. 98. Salah M. 77. Tewelde F. 14. Tolinsson J.
Coaches
Mercier A.	Johnson L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Seuntjens R. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Ferrara L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Thea A. ↓, Kis K. ↑,
59', Pelupessy J. ↓, Eyoma T. ↑,
59', Vancsa Z. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
63', Cachbach M. ↓, Diallo T. ↑,
63', Ion R. ↓, Sarkic O. ↑,
72', Lopez L. 🟨,
80', Florica L. ↓, Berberi R. ↑,
80', Lake T. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
82', Lopez L. ↓, Rommens N. ↑,
82', Reyners T. ↓, Montano J. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Seuntjens R. ⚽, Schoofs L. (A),
88', De Grand S. ↓, Oware H. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Promotion: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lommel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lommel could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, ROCCM won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne
Belgian Challenger Pro League
13.12.25	RWDM Brussels - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	3:3 ✺
05.12.25	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Genk U23 - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	3:4 ✺
23.11.25	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne - Beerschot Wilrijk	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Francs Borains - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 TTWLW
- Lommel SK
Belgian Challenger Pro League
12.12.25	Lommel - Gent U23	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Eupen - Lommel	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Kortrijk - Lommel	4:2 ✺
07.11.25	Lommel - Beveren	2:2 ✺
31.10.25	Lierse - Lommel	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Challenger Pro League
16.08.25	Lommel - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	3:0

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