Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 31

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Radomiak Radom		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.2	3.6	2.87
	2.38	3.5	2.68	Watch
	2.49	3.65	2.85
	2.43	3.64	2.77	Watch
	2.38	3.3	2.7
	2.36	3.45	2.73	Watch
	2.45	3.18	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.45)	3.48 ↑ (3.18)	2.71 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Radomiak Radom
39%

Draw
26.7%

Lechia Gdańsk
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

27.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

28%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Radomiak Radom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Radomiak will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Lechia will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 5. Blasco J. 26. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. 77. Donis C. 15. Tapsoba A. 82. Luquinhas 27. Wolski R. (C) 21. Balde E. 25. Maurides	18. Paulsen A. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T. 7. Viunnyk B.
Substitutes
10. Alves R. 6. Baro R. 2. Camara I. 16. Cichocki M. 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 14. Kingue S. 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 7. Lopes V. 19. Soumah S. 17. Zabicki A.	23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 76. Mavraj I. 99. Neugebauer T. 4. Pllana B. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 17. Tsarenko A. 1. Weirauch S. (G)
Coaches
Baltazar B.	Carver J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Tapsoba A. ⚽, Balde E. (A),
30', Viunnyk B. 🟨,
36', Blasco J. 🟥,
39', Maurides ↓, Kingue S. ↑,
44', Viunnyk B. ↓, Neugebauer T. ↑,
45', 2 - 0, Tapsoba A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 3 - 0, Tapsoba A. ⚽, Balde E. (A),
56', Wolski R. ↓, Camara I. ↑,
56', Balde E. ↓, Cichocki M. ↑,
62', Zie Ouattara 🟨,
66', 3 - 1, Bobcek T. (Penalty Awarded),
70', Donis C. ↓, Baro R. ↑,
70', Tapsoba A. ↓, Soumah S. ↑,
83', Vojtko M. ↓, Kalahur M. ↑,
83', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
85', Kalahur M. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 4.

Radomiak is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lechia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Radomiak may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lechia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Radomiak: Wilson-Esbrand J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Lechia: Glogowski M. (Injury) Kurminowski D. (Injury) Sezonienko K. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Radomiak won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Radomiak Radom: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Radomiak Radom	9	2	2	5	7:20	-13	8

Last Results with these Odds

Lechia Gdańsk - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.1%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.04.26	Wisła Płock - Radomiak Radom	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Radomiak Radom	0:2 ET ✺
06.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Radomiak Radom	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTL
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	4:2 ✺
21.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:2
14.03.25	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
14.09.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:0
25.02.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:3
14.08.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	4:1
Club Friendly
30.06.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0

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