Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 16

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Radomiak Radom		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3
	2.3	3.3	3	Watch
	2.36	3.5	3.19
	2.31	3.36	3.13	Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.88
	2.25	3.44	3.03	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.93)	3.39 ↓ (3.44)	3.03 ↓ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Radomiak Radom
41.2%

Draw
27.7%

Stal Mielec
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

26.9%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26.3%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Radomiak Radom's form might have worsened.

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stal Mielec's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Radomiak Radom, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stal Mielec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Radomiak will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Radomiak: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kikolski M. (G) 13. Grzesik J. 29. Rossi R. (C) 8. Luizao 24. Zie Ouattara 77. Donis C. 6. Jordao B. 7. Peglow 10. Alves R. 70. Vagner 17. Rocha L.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 3. Esselink B. 15. Senger M. 27. Jaunzems A. 10. Domanski M. 6. Guillaumier M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 96. Dadok R. 17. Shkurin I. 44. Krykun S.
Substitutes
20. Cielemecki R. 99. Guilherme 28. Kaput M. 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 88. Ramos F. 27. Wolski R. 3. Wu S.	9. Assayag R. 40. Bagalianis P. 32. Gerbowski F. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 21. Matras M. 19. Tkacz D. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Baltazar B.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
32', 0 - 1, Wlazlo P. (Pen),
45', 0 - 2, Shkurin I. ⚽, Jaunzems A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jordao B. ↓, Wolski R. ↑,
57', Luizao 🟨,
72', Vagner ↓, Leandro ↑,
72', Alves R. ↓, Ramos F. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Dadok R. (Own goal),
81', Leandro 🟨,
84', Leandro ↓, Guilherme ↑,
85', Jaunzems A. ↓, Matras M. ↑,
85', Dadok R. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
85', Shkurin I. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
90+3', Senger M. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 13 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Radomiak won 2.

Recent matches Radomiak is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stal Mielec is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Radomiak will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Radomiak won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:14 (average 0.9:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Radomiak won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:6 (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.11.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Radomiak Radom	0:1 ✺
03.11.24	Radomiak Radom - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
29.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Śląsk Wrocław	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.24	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	2:1 ✺
21.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTLLW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.11.24	Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
23.10.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
04.03.24	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	2:1
25.08.23	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	2:0
05.02.23	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:0
25.07.22	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	1:1
20.03.22	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:1
25.09.21	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	1:0
Club Friendly
02.02.21	Stal Mielec - Radomiak Radom	1:1

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