Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków (Częstochowa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Raków Częstochowa		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7	Watch
	1.39	4.5	8
	1.38	4.5	8	Watch
	1.38	4.71	8.9
	1.4	4.61	8.37	Watch
	1.33	4.4	8
	1.37	4.6	8.4	Watch
	1.38	4.5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.39)	4.57 ↑ (4.52)	8.08 ↓ (8.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
67.9%

Draw
20.5%

Stal Mielec
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

20.8%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

19.9%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: Raków Częstochowa will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 88. Rodin M. 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 8. Lederman B. 23. Barath P. 20. Silva J. 84. Adriano 10. Lopez I. 18. Brunes J.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 40. Bagalianis P. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 27. Jaunzems A. 6. Guillaumier M. 19. Tkacz D. 23. Getinger K. (C) 10. Domanski M. 44. Krykun S. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Substitutes
15. Diaz J. 21. Drachal D. 30. Kochergin V. 12. Kuciak D. (G) 97. Lamprou L. 27. Nowakowski K. 26. Otieno E. 3. Rundic M. 91. Walczak T.	9. Assayag R. 96. Dadok R. 3. Esselink B. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 20. Knap K. 17. Shkurin I. 11. Wolkowicz K.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Lopez I. 🟨,
32', Domanski M. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
37', Matras M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Barath P. 🟨,
66', Senger M. ↓, Esselink B. ↑,
70', Adriano ↓, Lamprou L. ↑,
70', Lederman B. ↓, Kochergin V. ↑,
78', Bagalianis P. 🟨,
79', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
79', Krykun S. ↓, Wolkowicz K. ↑,
81', Lopez I. ↓, Otieno E. ↑,
81', Tudor F. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
86', Silva J. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
89', Dadok R. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Brunes J. (Pen),

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Raków won 3.

Raków is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Stal Mielec is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Raków is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Raków: Berggren G. (Yellow Cards) Czyz S. (Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Pajnowski K. (Muscle Injury) Wlazlo P. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Raków: Plavsic S. (Injury) Racovitan B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Hinokio K. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Raków won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 25:19 (average 1.5:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Raków won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17:10 (average 1.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
20.10.24	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
05.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
28.09.24	Raków Częstochowa - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Miedź Legnica - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWWWL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.10.24	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
23.10.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
05.10.24	Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
30.09.24	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.02.24	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
19.08.23	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	2:0
10.02.23	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
31.07.22	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	3:2
14.03.22	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	2:1
19.09.21	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:3
05.05.21	Stal Mielec - Raków Częstochowa	0:1

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