Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 32

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: zondacrypto Arena (Częstochowa)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Raków Częstochowa		Korona Kielce

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	3.9	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.1
	1.8	3.55	4.05	Watch
	1.91	3.77	4.13
	1.8	3.83	4.33	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.2
	1.83	3.65	3.95	Watch
	1.82	3.55	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.78)	3.61 ↓ (3.89)	4.1 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
51.3%

Draw
25.9%

Korona Kielce
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

24.5%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

24.1%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Raków Częstochowa - Korona Kielce Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Korona will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Korona (4.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Korona (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 6. Repka O. 5. Bulat M. 11. Adriano 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 18. Brunes J. 8. Pienko T.	1. Dziekonski X. (C) 24. Smolarczyk B. 44. Sotiriou K. 5. Resta P. 71. Dlugosz W. 86. Gustafson S. 88. Svetlin T. 6. Pieczek M. 8. Remacle M. 7. Blanik D. 70. Antonin
Substitutes
24. Arsenic Z. 39. Brusberg I. 27. Dawidowicz P. 35. Ilenic M. 30. Kochergin V. 10. Lopez I. 9. Makuch P. 2. Mosor A. 26. Otieno E. 17. Rocha L. 20. Silva J. C. 48. Zych O. (G)	9. Davidovic S. 19. Hancko A. 27. Kaminski W. 87. Mamla R. (G) 3. Matuszewski K. 11. Nikolov V. 15. Niski N. 10. Nono 26. Popov V. 23. Rubezic S. 37. Zwozny H.
Coaches
Kroczek D.	Zielinski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Dlugosz W. 🟨,
25', Dlugosz W. ↓, Zwozny H. ↑,
45+5', Bulat M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Diaby-Fadiga L. ⚽, Repka O. (A),
57', 2 - 0, Bulat M. ⚽, Diaby-Fadiga L. (A),
63', Gustafson S. ↓, Nono ↑,
63', Remacle M. ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
66', Bulat M. ↓, Kochergin V. ↑,
70', Smolarczyk B. 🟨,
73', Blanik D. ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
74', Pieczek M. ↓, Matuszewski K. ↑,
75', Adriano ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
75', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
86', Pienko T. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
86', Brunes J. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 3.

Raków is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Korona is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Raków is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Raków: Ilenic M. (Inactive) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Struski K. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Raków won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Korona Kielce: 2.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12:10	2	15
18	Rakow	10	1	0	9	13:25	-12	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Cup
02.05.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
09.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice	5:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWTW
- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.05.26	Korona Kielce - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Korona Kielce - GKS Katowice	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Korona Kielce - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	1:4
17.05.25	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	1:1
24.11.24	Raków Częstochowa - Korona Kielce	1:1
13.03.24	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
17.12.23	Raków Częstochowa - Korona Kielce	1:0
07.05.23	Korona Kielce - Raków Częstochowa	1:0
22.10.22	Raków Częstochowa - Korona Kielce	1:0

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