Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 31

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 7
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Korona Kielce		Piast Gliwice

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.8
	2.2	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.32	3.31
	2.29	3.34	3.22	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.9
	2.26	3.2	3.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.3)	3.24 ↓ (3.35)	3.08 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
41%

Draw
28.7%

Piast Gliwice
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.4%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

27.8%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The chances for Piast Gliwice have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Korona Kielce - Piast Gliwice Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Korona will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 24. Smolarczyk B. 5. Resta P. 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. 86. Gustafson S. 88. Svetlin T. 3. Matuszewski K. 8. Remacle M. 7. Blanik D. (C) 14. Stepinski M.	30. Holec D. (G) 28. Borowski F. 5. Juande 29. Drapinski I. 36. Lewicki J. 10. Dziczek P. (C) 20. Tomasiewicz G. 98. Lokilo J. 7. Felix J. 11. Sanca L. 17. Boisgard Q.
Substitutes
70. Antonin 77. Cebula M. 21. Ciszek K. 9. Davidovic S. 87. Mamla R. (G) 11. Nikolov V. 10. Nono 26. Popov V. 23. Rubezic S. 44. Sotiriou K. 37. Zwozny H.	63. Barkovskiy G. 4. Czerwinski J. 9. Dalmau A. 3. Fikaj E. 12. Grelich J. (G) 70. Katsantonis A. 31. Lesniak O. 90. Lima I. 18. Maziarz O. 22. Mokwa T. 23. Mucha S. 80. Vallejo H.
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Mysliwiec D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 0 - 1, Juande ⚽, Tomasiewicz G. (A),
56', 1 - 1, Blanik D. ⚽, Dlugosz W. (A),
58', Sanca L. ↓, Vallejo H. ↑,
58', Felix J. ↓, Barkovskiy G. ↑,
68', Stepinski M. ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
68', Svetlin T. ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
70', Gustafson S. 🟨,
78', Remacle M. ↓, Nono ↑,
78', Blanik D. ↓, Antonin ↑,
80', Lokilo J. ↓, Katsantonis A. ↑,
80', Boisgard Q. ↓, Lesniak O. ↑,
84', Matuszewski K. ↓, Sotiriou K. ↑,
90+1', Tomasiewicz G. ↓, Mucha S. ↑,
90+2', Zielinski J. 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Piast: Plach F. (Knee Injury) Szymanski K. (Yellow Cards) Twumasi E. (Red Card)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Korona won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Korona Kielce: 2.08% Piast Gliwice: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12:10	2	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16:15	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Piast Gliwice - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 30.28%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.26	Korona Kielce - GKS Katowice	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Korona Kielce - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Korona Kielce	4:2 ✺
22.03.26	Korona Kielce - Arka Gdynia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLTLW
- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.04.26	Piast Gliwice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Piast Gliwice	1:1 ✺
13.04.26	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	Piast Gliwice - Radomiak Radom	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.10.25	Piast Gliwice - Korona Kielce	0:0
19.04.25	Piast Gliwice - Korona Kielce	1:1
18.10.24	Korona Kielce - Piast Gliwice	0:2
05.05.24	Korona Kielce - Piast Gliwice	1:1
03.11.23	Piast Gliwice - Korona Kielce	0:0
12.05.23	Piast Gliwice - Korona Kielce	2:1
29.10.22	Korona Kielce - Piast Gliwice	1:1

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