Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 6

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków (Częstochowa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Raków Częstochowa		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.2	3.46	3.41
	2.22	3.28	3.25	Watch
	2.07	3.42	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2)	3.35 ↓ (3.55)	3.36 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
44.1%

Draw
28%

Lech Poznań
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.2%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.1%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	40%	33.3%

Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Lech will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.84) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 88. Barath P. 5. Bulat M. 11. Adriano 18. Brunes J. 10. Lopez I. 99. Rondic I.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 88. Ismaheel T. 43. Kozubal A. 6. Ouma T. 56. Lisman K. 9. Ishak M. (C) 77. Palma L.
Substitutes
19. Ameyaw M. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 66. Konstantopoulos A. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 8. Pienko T. 6. Repka O. 97. Seck I. 23. Struski K. 48. Zych O. (G)	7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 15. Gurgul M. 24. Jagiello F. 27. Monka W. 99. Rodriguez P. 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', 0 - 1, Pereira J. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
32', Kozubal A. 🟨,
45+3', Tudor F. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 2, Palma L. ⚽, Kozubal A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rondic I. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
46', Racovitan B. ↓, Ameyaw M. ↑,
53', Palma L. 🟥,
58', Arsenic Z. ↓, Repka O. ↑,
61', Repka O. 🟨,
63', Lisman K. ↓, Skrzypczak M. ↑,
63', Ismaheel T. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
64', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Barath P. ⚽, Bulat M. (A),
67', 2 - 2, Lopez I. (Pen),
76', Pereira J. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
89', Kozubal A. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
90+5', Adriano 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Raków will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Raków won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:20. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLLWW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Genk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.25	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:1
09.08.24	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	0:0
03.03.24	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	4:0
28.09.23	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:1
14.05.23	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	0:2
30.10.22	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
Polish Super Cup
09.07.22	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:2

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