Match Info

Liga Primera - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN App
Ecuador	DAZN App
Mexico	DAZN App
Nicaragua	Campeones, NicaSports
Paraguay	DAZN App
Peru	DAZN App
Uruguay	DAZN App
Venezuela	DAZN App
World	FIFA+


	Rancho Santana		Matagalpa

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.55
	4.55	4.05	1.55
	5.12	4.17	1.49
	4.88	4.1	1.61	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.57
	5.22	4.12	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.85 ↑ (3.56)	4.06 ↑ (3.84)	1.56 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rancho Santana
18.9%

Draw
22.5%

Matagalpa
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

23.8%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

23%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rancho Santana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rancho Santana's form might have worsened.

Matagalpa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matagalpa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rancho Santana than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rancho Santana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matagalpa than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matagalpa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Rancho Santana - Matagalpa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matagalpa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rancho Santana (3.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Matagalpa (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matagalpa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rancho Santana (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Matagalpa (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, ⚽,
42', 0 - 3, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 5)
47', 0 - 4, ⚽,
53', 1 - 4, ⚽,
60', 1 - 5, ⚽,
67', 1 - 6, ⚽,
71', 2 - 6, ⚽,
72', 2 - 7, ⚽,
89', 2 - 8, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Clausura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rancho Santana won 2.

Rancho Santana is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Matagalpa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Matagalpa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Matagalpa is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Rancho Santana won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rancho Santana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Matagalpa	9	3	0	6	4:16	-12	9
10	Rancho Santana	10	1	2	7	8:20	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rancho Santana FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
26.02.26	Diriangén - Rancho Santana	5:1 ✺
23.02.26	Rancho Santana - Real Madriz	3:3 ✺
18.02.26	Municipal Jalapa - Rancho Santana	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Rancho Santana - UNAN Managua	1:3 ✺
12.02.26	Sport Sébaco - Rancho Santana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Matagalpa FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
25.02.26	Matagalpa - Sport Sébaco	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Matagalpa - Real Estelí	1:1 ✺
18.02.26	Walter Ferretti - Matagalpa	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Managua - Matagalpa	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Matagalpa - Municipal Jalapa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
24.01.26	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	0:2
27.09.25	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	1:4
22.07.25	Rancho Santana - Matagalpa	1:2
22.03.25	Rancho Santana - Matagalpa	1:1
26.02.25	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	2:1
03.11.24	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	1:0
24.08.24	Rancho Santana - Matagalpa	1:0

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