Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Allianz Stadion (Vienna)

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Rapid Wien		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.75	3.2	Watch
	2.08	3.6	3.15
	2.14	3.93	3.28
	2.08	3.91	3.17	Watch
	2.1	3.8	3.2
	2.1	3.84	3.28	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.65)	3.79 ↑ (3.5)	3.2 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rapid Wien
45.4%

Draw
25%

Sturm Graz
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

26.5%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

25.3%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rapid Wien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rapid Wien's performance.

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sturm Graz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rapid Wien than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rapid Wien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sturm Graz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Rapid will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Sturm will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rapid: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rapid (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hedl N. (G) 77. Bolla B. 55. Cvetkovic N. (C) 6. Raux-Yao S. 38. Horn J. 29. Amane R. 30. Bajlicz N. 7. Tilio M. 22. Demir Y. 43. Haidara M. 8. Adamsen T.	22. Helac A. (G) 28. Heil J. 5. Vallci A. 30. Koller P. 18. Soglo E. 39. Weinhandl L. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 43. Hodl J. 19. Seidl S. 20. Jatta S. 26. Beganovic B.
Substitutes
10. Dahl P. 61. Demir F. 25. Gartler P. (G) 47. Groller A. 9. Kara E. 2. Roka E. 21. Schaub L. 18. Seidl M. 15. Wurmbrand N.	27. Balbo L. 11. Kayombo A. 41. Lorenz E. (G) 23. Malic A. 15. Mamageishvili G. 78. Matoshi V. 21. Petrovic P. 2. Quarshie J. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Thorup J.	Ingolitsch F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', Heil J. 🟨,
7', 1 - 0, Demir Y. (Penalty Awarded),
10', 1 - 1, Beganovic B. ⚽, Seidl S. (A),
17', 2 - 1, Tilio M. ⚽, Adamsen T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Soglo E. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
46', Horn J. ↓, Roka E. ↑,
46', Hodl J. ↓, Mamageishvili G. ↑,
53', Gorenc Stankovic J. 🟨,
59', Beganovic B. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
59', Amane R. 🟨,
61', Tilio M. ↓, Dahl P. ↑,
65', Weinhandl L. 🟨,
73', Amane R. ↓, Seidl M. ↑,
73', Adamsen T. ↓, Kara E. ↑,
75', Seidl S. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
81', Koller P. ↓, Quarshie J. ↑,
84', Haidara M. ↓, Wurmbrand N. ↑,
86', 3 - 1, Dahl P. ⚽, Demir Y. (A),
89', Wurmbrand N. 🟨,
90', Vallci A. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rapid won 3.

Rapid is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sturm has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rapid may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rapid is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rapid: M'Buyi C. (Knee Injury) Ndzie M. (Knee Injury) Nunoo D. (Hamstring Injury) Vincze D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Kiteishvili O. (Injury) Rozga F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rapid won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Rapid won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Sturm Graz: 7.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	SK Rapid	7	6	0	1	21:7	14	18
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	8:9	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Rapid Wien - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.95%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Sturm Graz - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.59%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rapid Wien
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.08.26	Rapid Wien - Hearts	2:3 penalties ✺
20.08.26	Hearts - Rapid Wien	2:2 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
16.08.26	Rapid Wien - Grazer AK	8:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.08.26	Rapid Wien - Paide LM	2:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
09.08.26	Ried - Rapid Wien	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTWWW
- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
22.08.26	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Sturm Graz - Rheindorf Altach	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
08.08.26	Hartberg - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
17.05.26	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	2:0
05.04.26	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	0:2
02.11.25	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	2:1
10.08.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:2
18.05.25	Rapid Wien - Sturm Graz	3:1
04.04.25	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	2:0
02.11.24	Sturm Graz - Rapid Wien	1:1

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