Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 15

Date: 6 December 2022, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Cerro del Espino (Majadahonda)


	Rayo Majadahonda		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.85
	3.8	3.3	1.78
	3.9	3.3	1.8
	3.9	3.3	1.81
	4.14	3.43	1.88
	4	3.4	1.8
	3.98	3.56	1.78
	3.95	3.35	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (3.52)	3.37 ↑ (2.94)	1.82 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Majadahonda
23%

Draw
27%

Real Madrid Castilla
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

30.8%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

30.3%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Majadahonda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid Castilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Majadahonda than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Rayo Majadahonda - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid Castilla will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rayo Majadahonda won 2.

Recent matches Rayo Majadahonda is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real Madrid Castilla in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Rayo Majadahonda have a series of guest games.

In this match Real Madrid Castilla is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Rayo Majadahonda won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Rayo Majadahonda won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Rayo Majadahonda
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.12.22	Mérida AD - Rayo Majadahonda	1:2 ✺
26.11.22	Rayo Majadahonda - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
20.11.22	Celta de Vigo B - Rayo Majadahonda	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.11.22	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas - Rayo Majadahonda	3:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.11.22	Leonesa - Rayo Majadahonda	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLLLW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.12.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
27.11.22	Linares Deportivo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:2 ✺
20.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	2:0 ✺
06.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
29.10.22	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
03.03.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0
15.11.20	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
16.02.20	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2
28.09.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Rayo Majadahonda	3:1
07.01.18	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Madrid Castilla	3:1
19.08.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Rayo Majadahonda	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
19.02.17	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1

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