Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 14

Date: 3 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	DAZN Deutsch


	Real Madrid Castilla		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.2	5.75
	1.41	4.1	6
	1.45	4.1	5.8
	1.39	4.1	6
	1.48	4.57	5.84
	1.44	3.9	6.5
	1.41	4.33	6.5
	1.42	4.3	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.56)	4.2 ↑ (3.5)	6.07 ↑ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
63.5%

Draw
21.6%

Leonesa
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

25.7%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

24.5%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 8).

Real Madrid Castilla in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Leonesa is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Real Madrid Castilla is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Real Madrid Castilla to win the game is with odds 1.43.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Real Madrid Castilla won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.11.22	Linares Deportivo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:2 ✺
20.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	2:0 ✺
06.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
29.10.22	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2 ✺
23.10.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Deportivo A Coruña	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWWWW
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.11.22	Leonesa - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:0 ✺
20.11.22	Deportivo A Coruña - Leonesa	2:2 ✺
06.11.22	Leonesa - Rayo Majadahonda	1:3 ✺
29.10.22	Linense - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Leonesa - Pontevedra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.08.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	2:2
14.08.19	Leonesa - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.02.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	2:2
23.09.18	Leonesa - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2

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