Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 31

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Avilés		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.2
	2.22	3.05	3.15
	2.14	2.83	3.89
	2.15	3.03	3.65	Watch
	2.25	2.7	3.2
	2.26	2.81	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.19)	2.9 ↓ (3.05)	3.4 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
41.6%

Draw
31.5%

Ourense CF
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

30%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

30.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Real Avilés - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Almodovar N. (G) 5. Babin J. (C) 20. Campabadal E. 24. Lopez A. 15. Chukwuma E. 16. Gomez A. 8. Bautista K. 14. Cayarga B. 9. Santamaria A. 21. Uzkudun A. 17. Bari Q.	1. Raton A. (G) 4. Carmona F. (C) 2. Coto E. 3. Sanz H. 12. Jelbat A. 8. Ramos J. 22. Yuste A. 17. Hernandez R. 9. Sergio Benito 11. Aranzabe A. 10. Ochoa M.
Substitutes
10. Cueto J. 3. Diaz V. 1. Fernandez A. (G) 18. Gete A. 12. Grigore R. 22. Isi Ros 7. Luis Alcalde 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R.	7. Bouzaig A. 6. Castillo N. 21. Guerrero A. 20. Gueye L. 16. Munoz D. 14. Perez A. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 15. Rivas L. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Ochoa M. ⚽,
25', 🟨,
25', 🟨,
28', Coto E. 🟥,
30', Sergio Benito ↓, Prado M. ↑,
45', 1 - 1, Uzkudun A. ⚽,
45+5', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hernandez R. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
52', Lopez A. ↓, Isi Ros ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Bari Q. ⚽,
73', 🟨,
77', 🟨,
78', Sanz H. ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
78', Aranzabe A. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
82', Bari Q. ↓, Rivera C. ↑,
82', Uzkudun A. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
87', Santamaria A. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
89', Santamaria A. ↓, Luis Alcalde ↑,
89', Bautista K. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Recent form of Real Avilés has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Ourense CF has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Avilés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Real Avilés might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1:11. (average 0.2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.03.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Avilés	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Real Avilés - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Talavera de la Reina - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Real Avilés - Zamora	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Tenerife - Real Avilés	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LTTLT
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.03.26	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Pontevedra - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Ourense CF - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.01.26	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
05.05.24	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	0:2
06.01.24	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:0
22.04.23	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	0:3
11.12.22	Ourense CF - Real Avilés	2:0

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