Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Talavera de la Reina		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.1
	1.82	3.47	4.51
	2.04	3.45	3.44	Watch
	1.75	3.25	4
	1.75	3.4	4.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.03)	3.39 ↑ (3.31)	4.07 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
50.4%

Draw
27.1%

Real Avilés
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27.6%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

27%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Talavera de la Reina's performance.

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Talavera de la Reina - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Belman (G) 14. Molina A. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 2. Cuenca D. 20. Ferni 21. Montero Sergio 16. Navarro I. 6. Pitu 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 9. Moreno M.	13. Almodovar N. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. (C) 12. Grigore R. 26. Menendez O. 14. Cayarga B. 16. Gomez A. 18. Gete A. 8. Bautista K. 22. Isi Ros 10. Cueto J.
Substitutes
15. Acosta L. 7. Di Renzo G. 23. Farrando M. . Franklin 19. Gomez V. 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 24. Nordin M. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L.	17. Bari Q. 15. Chukwuma E. 1. Fernandez A. (G) 7. Luis Alcalde 2. Ortega G. 19. Poquet N. 23. Rivera C. 11. Rubio R. 9. Santamaria A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Ferni ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Cayarga B. ⚽,
45', Navarro I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Grigore R. ↓, Chukwuma E. ↑,
62', Cayarga B. ↓, Rubio R. ↑,
62', Gomez A. ↓, Rivera C. ↑,
62', Cuenca D. ↓, Roig A. ↑,
62', Montero Sergio ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
69', Cueto J. ↓, Santamaria A. ↑,
72', Navarro I. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
73', Menendez O. ↓, Ortega G. ↑,
77', Moreno M. ↓, Di Renzo G. ↑,
77', Pitu ↓, Sanchez L. ↑,
83', Isi Ros 🟨,
90', Belman 🟨,
90+5', Bautista K. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Recent performances by Talavera have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Avilés has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Real Avilés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Talavera might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Talavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Talavera de la Reina - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.05%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Real Avilés - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 27.36%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.03.26	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Ferrol	3:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWLWL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	Real Avilés - Zamora	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Tenerife - Real Avilés	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Real Avilés	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Arenteiro - Real Avilés	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Real Avilés - Talavera de la Reina	1:1

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