Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta (Avilés)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Avilés		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.45
	2.42	3.25	2.72
	2.8	3.24	2.38
	2.38	3.55	2.72	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.45
	2.57	3.46	2.57
	2.71	3.14	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.46)	3.29 ↓ (3.49)	2.52 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Avilés
35.9%

Draw
27.8%

Real Madrid Castilla
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

26.6%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

26.3%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Real Avilés - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 20. Campabadal E. 5. Babin J. 12. Grigore R. 22. Isi Ros 14. Cayarga B. 23. Rivera C. 8. Bautista K. 18. Gete A. 21. Uzkudun A. 11. Rubio R.	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 20. Fortuny P. 8. Angel M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.
Substitutes
13. Almodovar N. (G) 17. Bari Q. 10. Cueto J. 7. Luis Alcalde 26. Menendez O. 19. Poquet N. 9. Santamaria A.	17. Fortea J. 37. Gines A. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 38. Martinez B. 28. Martin R. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Uzkudun A. ↓, Santamaria A. ↑,
27', 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Zuniga L. ⚽,
43', Bautista K. 🟨,
45+3', Isi Ros 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Zuniga L. 🟥,
61', Palacios C. ↓, Serrano M. ↑,
62', Rubio R. ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
62', Gete A. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
71', Bari Q. 🟨,
72', Rivera C. ↓, Luis Alcalde ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Bari Q. ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+12', Isi Ros 🟨,
90+12', Cayarga B. 🟨,
90+15', Campabadal E. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Recent form of Real Avilés has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Real Madrid Castilla has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Avilés won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Real Aviles	6	1	2	3	9:10	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Real Avilés	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Arenteiro - Real Avilés	6:3 ✺
31.01.26	Real Avilés - Mérida AD	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLLW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Tenerife - Real Madrid Castilla	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0

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