Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera B - Clausura - Quadrangular - Round 5

Date: 18 November 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win Sports Online


	Real Cartagena		Llaneros SA

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.1	3.5
	2	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2	3.24	3.73
	1.98	3.33	3.84	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.5
	1.97	3.28	3.69	Watch
	2	3.25	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.21)	3.24 ↑ (3.12)	3.67 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
46.5%

Draw
28.4%

Llaneros SA
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.3%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

30.9%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Llaneros SA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llaneros SA than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Real Cartagena - Llaneros SA Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montes A. (G) 13. Angulo J. 16. Artola I. 25. Castillo M. 5. Cuero Fabian 7. De La Rosa W. 29. Gutierrez T. 17. Marrugo C. 3. Palomeque Palacios D. Y. 27. Salcedo J. 19. Valencia J.	1. Armesto K. (G) 20. Angulo J. 32. Arbelaez F. 5. Cadavid A. 7. Duarte W. 31. Montes G. 27. Mosquera D. 21. Ospina N. 6. Sierra M. 10. Uruena B. 26. Verdugo A.
Substitutes
18. Ditta Ruiz J. J. 8. Espinosa J. 15. Florez C. 22. Fontalvo R. (G) 11. Lucumi B. 26. Murillo M. 6. Torres Y.	11. Bogota C. 12. Cadavid A. (G) 9. Caicedo J. F. 33. Lasso J. 14. Quintero Fletcher J. E. 99. Restrepo E. 15. Valencia C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Cuero Fabian 🟨,
45+2', Gutierrez T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Valencia J. ↓, Ditta Ruiz J. J. ↑,
46', Cuero Fabian ↓, Torres Y. ↑,
56', Duarte W. ↓, Caicedo J. F. ↑,
56', Verdugo A. ↓, Restrepo E. ↑,
59', Caicedo J. F. 🟨,
69', Ospina N. ↓, Lasso J. ↑,
74', Marrugo C. 🟨,
75', Marrugo C. ↓, Espinosa J. ↑,
75', Gutierrez T. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
79', Salcedo J. 🟨,
79', 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Murillo M. ⚽,
84', Montes G. 🟨,
84', Arbelaez F. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
85', Uruena B. ↓, Bogota C. ↑,
87', Castillo M. ↓, Florez C. ↑,
90+3', Murillo M. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Cartagena won 0.

Recent matches Real Cartagena is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Llaneros SA is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Real Cartagena will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Real Cartagena won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13:21 (average 0.9:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Cartagena won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:11 (average 1.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Cartagena - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.45%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
13.11.24	Deportes Quindío - Real Cartagena	2:1 ✺
09.11.24	Real Cartagena - Deportes Quindío	3:0 ✺
04.11.24	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	5:1 ✺
30.10.24	Real Cartagena - Orsomarso	2:1 ✺
22.10.24	Real Cartagena - Tigres	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWW
- Llaneros Fútbol Club SA
Colombian Primera B
13.11.24	Llaneros SA - Orsomarso	1:0 ✺
09.11.24	Orsomarso - Llaneros SA	2:0 ✺
04.11.24	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	5:1 ✺
30.10.24	Deportes Quindío - Llaneros SA	0:2 ✺
22.10.24	Llaneros SA - Atlético Huila	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
04.11.24	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	5:1
17.08.24	Real Cartagena - Llaneros SA	1:2
28.02.24	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	0:0
08.10.23	Real Cartagena - Llaneros SA	1:1
30.05.23	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	1:0
27.05.23	Real Cartagena - Llaneros SA	2:1
30.04.23	Llaneros SA - Real Cartagena	2:1

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