Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Real Jaén		Atlético Malagueño

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.05	3.95
	1.94	3.08	4.04	Watch
	2	2.9	3.8
	2.03	3.11	3.94
	1.96	2.9	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.66)	3.01 ↓ (3.35)	3.99 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
46.6%

Draw
30.4%

Atlético Malagueño
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

27.1%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

19.7%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Jaén's form might have worsened.

Atlético Malagueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Jaén that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Malagueño than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Real Jaén - Atlético Malagueño Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Jaén will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Malagueño will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Jaén (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽,
43', 2 - 0, Martos M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 3 - 0, Burgos F. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Recent form of Jaén has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Malagueño has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Jaén is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jaén won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Real Jaén - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 54.59%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	Águilas - Real Jaén	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Xerez CD - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Real Jaén - Recreativo Huelva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLLLW
- Atlético Malagueño
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	Atlético Malagueño - Yeclano Deportivo	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Xerez CD - Atlético Malagueño	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Atlético Malagueño - Minera	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - La Unión	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
01.10.17	Atlético Malagueño - Real Jaén	1:0

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