Bayern Munich - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday
  • Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)
  • Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Bayern Munich Real Madrid
    Bayern Munich Real Madrid
    1 X 2
    #Advertisement. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ 1.53 6 4.33
    betsson 1.52 5.55 4.9
    Bet_in_Asia 1.56 5.95 4.65
    GGBet 1.62 5.97 4.05 Watch and Bet Watch
    Williamhill 1.53 5.5 4.2
    BetNow 1.6 6.11 4.16
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.56
    (1.58)
    5.85
    (5)
    4.38
    (4.62)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

    • The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

    #Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

    Current Win Probability

    Bayern Munich
    61.6%
    Draw
    16.4%
    Real Madrid
    21.9%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    60.3% 19.1% 20.6%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    63% 18.3% 19.7%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
  • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    62.2% 8.5% 29.3%
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    Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 80 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 50 - 62.5%). Real will win (votes: 23 - 28.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 8.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 51.9% โ€“ 73.1%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 6 - 50%). Real (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅˆ Silver Tip.
    • AH +1 - Real (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Real (2.43) (votes: 3 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‰ Bronze Tip.
    • TQ, OT - Real (5.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Real (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. GermanyNeuer M. (C)
    44. CroatiaStanisic J.
      2. FranceUpamecano D.
      4. GermanyTah J.
    27. AustriaLaimer K.
      6. GermanyKimmich J.
    45. GermanyPavlovic A.
    17. FranceOlise M.
      7. GermanyGnabry S.
    14. ColombiaDiaz L.
      9. EnglandKane H.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
      3. BrazilEder Militao
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    23. FranceMendy F.
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
    19. CanadaDavies A.
      8. GermanyGoretzka L.
    22. PortugalGuerreiro R.
    21. JapanIto H.
    11. SenegalJackson N.
      3. SouthKim Min-Jae
    10. GermanyMusiala J.
    37. GermanyPrescott L. (G)
    40. GermanyUrbig J. (G)
      4. AustriaAlaba D.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
      2. SpainCarvajal D.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
    26. SpainFran (G)
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    24. SpainHuijsen D.
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    29. SpainNavarro Jimenez J. (G)
    45. SpainPitarch T.
    Coaches
         BelgiumKompany V.
         SpainArbeloa A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 3)
    • 1', 0 - 1, Guler A. ,
    • 6', 1 - 1, Pavlovic A. , Kimmich J. (A),
    • 29', Stanisic J. 🟨,
    • 29', 1 - 2, Guler A. ,
    • 38', 2 - 2, Kane H. , Upamecano D. (A),
    • 40', Eder Militao 🟨,
    • 42', 2 - 3, Mbappe K. , Vinicius Junior (A),
    • 44', Kompany V. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
    • 46', Stanisic J. , Davies A. ,
    • 61', Gnabry S. , Musiala J. ,
    • 62', Diaz B. , Camavinga E. ,
    • 70', Rudiger A. 🟨,
    • 78', Camavinga E. 🟨,
    • 86', Camavinga E. 🟨,
    • 89', 3 - 3, Diaz L. , Musiala J. (A),
    • 90', Alexander-Arnold T. , Pitarch T. ,
    • 90', Guler A. , Mastantuono F. ,
    • 90+4', 4 - 3, Olise M. , Kane H. (A),
    • 90+5', Guler A. 🟥,

    Preview

  • First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 2.
  • Bayern is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
  • Real has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 2).
  • In this match, Bayern is a strong favorite.
  • There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Karl L. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ndiaye B. (Inactive) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Asencio R. (Illness) Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury) Tchouameni A. (Yellow Cards)
  • We predict that Bayern will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.
  • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 1.2:1.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.3:1.6).
  • banner

    Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now
    Bayern Munich: 10.68% Real Madrid: 10.32%
    Form
    - easy match; - difficult match;
    - Bayern Munich
    German Bundesliga
    11.04.26 St. Pauli - Bayern Munich 0:5
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 1:2
    German Bundesliga
    04.04.26 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 2:3
    21.03.26 Bayern Munich - Union Berlin 4:0
    UEFA Champions League
    18.03.26 Bayern Munich - Atalanta 4:1
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5
    WWWWW
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.04.26 Real Madrid - Girona 1:1
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 1:2
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.04.26 Mallorca - Real Madrid 2:1
    22.03.26 Real Madrid - Atlรฉtico Madrid 3:2
    UEFA Champions League
    17.03.26 Manchester City - Real Madrid 1:2
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5
    TLLWW
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Champions League
    07.04.26 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 1:2
    08.05.24 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 2:1
    30.04.24 Bayern Munich - Real Madrid 2:2
    International Champions Cup
    20.07.19 Bayern Munich - Real Madrid 3:1
    UEFA Champions League
    01.05.18 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 2:2
    25.04.18 Bayern Munich - Real Madrid 1:2
    18.04.17 Real Madrid - Bayern Munich 4:2 ET
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    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
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    UEFA Champions League
    08.09.26 Real Madrid - Inter Milan