Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Solh Sports 1, Tolo TV
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	SBS On Demand, Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	15:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, V Sport Premium
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport, New World TV
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Shabake 3, Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	05:00	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	15:00	ESPN
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360, Canal+ Extra 1, Canal+ Extra 3, sport.tvp.pl, TVP 1, TVP Sport app
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 6
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	DAZN USA, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus, VTV Prime
International	19:00	Sport 24


	Real Madrid		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.75	4	2.25
	2.9	3.9	2.15
	2.82	4.1	2.28
	2.83	4.15	2.36
	2.67	4.13	2.41	Watch
	2.7	3.8	2.25
	2.66	4.1	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)	4.03 ↓ (4.11)	2.3 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
34.7%

Draw
23.8%

Bayern Munich
41.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.1%

23.4%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

23.6%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.6%	23.5%	45.9%

Real Madrid - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 85 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 26 - 30.6%). Bayern will win (votes: 39 - 45.9%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 35.3% – 56.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 4 - 40%). Bayern (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Real (1.62) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.67) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.25 - Bayern (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Bayern (votes: 7 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 27. Laimer K. 45. Pavlovic A. 6. Kimmich J. 17. Olise M. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
4. Alaba D. 17. Asencio R. 5. Bellingham J. 6. Camavinga E. 2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 3. Eder Militao 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 30. Mastantuono F.	20. Bischof T. 19. Davies A. 8. Goretzka L. 22. Guerreiro R. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 42. Karl L. 3. Kim Min-Jae 10. Musiala J. 38. Osmani E. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 0 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
62', Huijsen D. ↓, Eder Militao ↑,
62', Pitarch T. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
69', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
69', Laimer K. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
71', Tah J. 🟨,
71', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
77', Diaz L. 🟨,
82', Neuer M. 🟨,
86', Musiala J. 🟨,
90+3', Diaz L. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
90+3', Pavlovic A. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 2.

Real is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Real: Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ndiaye B. (Inactive) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Ceballos D. (Calf Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Real won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:15. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	10:5	5	9
14	Bayern Munich	3	1	2	0	10:5	5	5

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Bayern Munich: 11.37% Real Madrid: 8.73%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
04.04.26	Mallorca - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWWWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atalanta - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.05.24	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	2:1
30.04.24	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	2:2
International Champions Cup
20.07.19	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	3:1
UEFA Champions League
01.05.18	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	2:2
25.04.18	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	1:2
18.04.17	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	4:2 ET
12.04.17	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	1:2

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