Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Real Madrid		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.75	4	2.25
	2.9	3.9	2.15
	2.82	4.1	2.28
	2.83	4.15	2.36
	2.67	4.13	2.41	Watch
	2.7	3.8	2.25
	2.66	4.1	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)	4.03 ↓ (4.11)	2.3 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
34.7%

Draw
23.8%

Bayern Munich
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

23.4%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

23.9%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.6%	23.5%	45.9%

Real Madrid - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 85 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 26 - 30.6%). Bayern will win (votes: 39 - 45.9%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 35.3% – 56.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 4 - 40%). Bayern (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Real (1.62) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.67) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.25 - Bayern (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Bayern (votes: 7 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 2. Upamecano D. 4. Tah J. 27. Laimer K. 45. Pavlovic A. 6. Kimmich J. 17. Olise M. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
4. Alaba D. 17. Asencio R. 5. Bellingham J. 6. Camavinga E. 2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 3. Eder Militao 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 30. Mastantuono F.	20. Bischof T. 19. Davies A. 8. Goretzka L. 22. Guerreiro R. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 42. Karl L. 3. Kim Min-Jae 10. Musiala J. 38. Osmani E. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 0 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
62', Huijsen D. ↓, Eder Militao ↑,
62', Pitarch T. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
69', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
69', Laimer K. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
71', Tah J. 🟨,
71', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
77', Diaz L. 🟨,
82', Neuer M. 🟨,
86', Musiala J. 🟨,
90+3', Diaz L. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
90+3', Pavlovic A. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 2.

Real is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Real: Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ndiaye B. (Inactive) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Ceballos D. (Calf Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Real won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:15. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Bayern Munich: 11.41% Real Madrid: 10.27%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	5:0	5	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
04.04.26	Mallorca - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWWWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atalanta - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.05.24	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	2:1
30.04.24	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	2:2
International Champions Cup
20.07.19	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	3:1
UEFA Champions League
01.05.18	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	2:2
25.04.18	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	1:2
18.04.17	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	4:2 ET
12.04.17	Bayern Munich - Real Madrid	1:2

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