Match Info

Date: 9 March 2022, Wednesday


	Real Madrid		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.8	2.55
	2.45	3.75	2.6
	2.55	3.8	2.7
	2.5	3.65	2.65
	2.63	3.75	2.64
	2.45	3.7	2.62
	2.68	3.92	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.48)	3.77 ↑ (3.71)	2.63 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
37.9%

Draw
25.5%

Paris Saint-Germain
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

25.7%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

18.9%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.7%	18.1%	28.2%

Real Madrid - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 149 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 80 - 53.7%). PSG will win (votes: 42 - 28.2%). It will Tie (votes: 27 - 18.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 45.7% – 61.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Real was already of round of 16, has a chance of qtrs (38%), has a chance of semis (17%), has a small chance of final (7%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

PSG was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (62%), has a chance of semis (26%), has a small chance of final (9%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has big quality 85, very big importance 100, very big match rating 93. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 2.

Real is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches PSG is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Real won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Real won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
05.03.22	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
26.02.22	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
19.02.22	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
12.02.22	Villarreal - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLT
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
05.03.22	Nice - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
26.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Saint-Étienne	3:1 ✺
19.02.22	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Rennes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
15.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	1:0
26.11.19	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2
18.09.19	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	3:0
06.03.18	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	1:2
14.02.18	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1
International Champions Cup
27.07.16	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3
UEFA Champions League
03.11.15	Real Madrid - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0

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