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Villarreal - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 21
  • Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday
  • Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)
  • Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Villarreal Real Madrid
    Villarreal Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.72 ↑
    (3.35)    		 4.06 ↑
    (3.91)    		 1.88 ↓
    (2.01)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

    • The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Villarreal
    25.7%    		Draw
    23.5%    		Real Madrid
    50.8%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    28.4% 24.3% 47.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    28% 24% 47.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    11.7% 10.4% 77.9%

    Villarreal - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 77 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 9 - 11.7%). Real will win (votes: 60 - 77.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 10.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 68.6% – 87.2%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Villarreal (3.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Real (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (30 of 35 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Villarreal (votes: 4 - 10.5%). Real (votes: 31 - 81.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.9%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. BrazilLuiz Junior (G)
    26. SpainNavarro P.
      8. ArgentinaFoyth J.
    12. PortugalVeiga R.
    24. SpainPedraza A.
    17. CanadaBuchanan T.
    10. SpainParejo D.
    18. SenegalGueye P.
    20. SpainMoleiro A.
      7. SpainMoreno G. (C)
      9. GeorgiaMikautadze G.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    17. SpainAsencio R.
    24. SpainHuijsen D.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
    23. SpainCardona S.
    37. SpainMacia C.
      4. SpainMarin R.
    21. CanadaOluwaseyi T.
    16. GhanaPartey T.
    19. IvoryPepe N.
    22. SpainPerez A.
    25. SpainTenas A. (G)
    		27. SpainAguado D.
      4. AustriaAlaba D.
      2. SpainCarvajal D.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
    28. SpainCestero Sancho J.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    43. SpainMestre S. (G)
    11. BrazilRodrygo
    Coaches
         SpainMarcelino G.
    		     SpainArbeloa A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 2', Foyth J. 🟨,
    • 23', Foyth J. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
    • 47', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽,
    • 51', Buchanan T. 🟨,
    • 57', Navarro P. 🟨,
    • 62', Mastantuono F. 🟨,
    • 70', Buchanan T. ↓, Pepe N. ↑,
    • 70', Moreno G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
    • 74', Mastantuono F. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
    • 76', Mikautadze G. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
    • 77', Parejo D. ↓, Partey T. ↑,
    • 80', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
    • 90+2', 0 - 2, Mbappe K. (Penalty Awarded),

    Preview

  • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 0.
  • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
  • Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Real is the team to beat.
  • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Comesana S. (Red Card) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury) Mourino S. (Yellow Cards)
  • There will not play in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Thigh Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Calf Injury) Rudiger A. (Knee Injury) Tchouameni A. (Yellow Cards)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Villarreal won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 29:39. (average 1.5:2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Villarreal won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.8:2).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Madrid: 20.23% Villarreal: 0.44%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    4Real Madrid750218:81015
    9Villarreal722313:1218

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Villarreal CF
    UEFA Champions League
    20.01.26 Villarreal - Ajax 1:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    17.01.26 Betis - Villarreal 2:0 ✺
    10.01.26 Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés 3:1 ✺
    03.01.26 Elche - Villarreal 1:3 ✺
    21.12.25 Villarreal - Barcelona 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8
    LLWWL
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    20.01.26 Real Madrid - Monaco 6:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    17.01.26 Real Madrid - Levante 2:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    14.01.26 Albacete Balompié - Real Madrid 3:2 ✺
    Spanish Supercopa
    11.01.26 Barcelona - Real Madrid 3:2 ✺
    08.01.26 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7
    WWLLW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.10.25 Real Madrid - Villarreal 3:1
    15.03.25 Villarreal - Real Madrid 1:2
    05.10.24 Real Madrid - Villarreal 2:0
    19.05.24 Villarreal - Real Madrid 4:4
    17.12.23 Real Madrid - Villarreal 4:1
    08.04.23 Real Madrid - Villarreal 2:3
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    19.01.23 Villarreal - Real Madrid 2:3
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Villarreal CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    17.10.26 Villarreal - Elche ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    13.10.26 Villarreal - Napoli ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    14.10.26 Roma - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺

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