Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 22

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio de Espiñedo (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenteiro		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.88	2.63
	2.62	2.92	2.72
	2.84	3.09	2.78
	2.6	3	2.84	Watch
	2.63	2.7	2.63
	2.72	2.72	2.68
	2.71	2.66	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.79)	2.85 ↓ (3)	2.71 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenteiro
34.2%

Draw
32.1%

Athletic Bilbao B
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

30.9%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

31%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Athletic Bilbao B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (+2%)

Arenteiro - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvin (G) 4. Falcon E. 3. Lohr L. 15. Moreno D. 22. Sanchez J. 6. Val B. 25. Bastida A. 10. Chuca 7. Ferreiro D. 11. Cuellar J. 18. Mingo V.	13. Santos M. (G) 4. Dunabeitia A. 3. De Luis J. 12. Barandalla M. 15. Alday I. 18. Garcia E. 8. Lete E. 10. Sanchez I. 22. Perez A. 23. Gift E. 9. Sanz I.
Substitutes
19. Alpha M. 13. Garcia D. (G) 8. Gonzalez D. 16. Guerrero J. 21. Llacer L. 2. Moya P. 5. Perez G. 24. Richarte R. 14. Safrai	11. Bujan E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 6. Gibelalde M. 17. Huestamendia P. 2. Irurita X. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 19. Louis-Jean J. 37. Oyono I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Sanz I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', De Luis J. 🟨,
62', Perez A. ↓, Huestamendia P. ↑,
69', Bastida A. ↓, Safrai ↑,
69', Chuca ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
76', Cuellar J. ↓, Llacer L. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Falcon E. ⚽,
89', Sanchez I. ↓, Louis-Jean J. ↑,
89', Barandalla M. ↓, Bujan E. ↑,
90', Sanchez J. ↓, Alpha M. ↑,
90', Ferreiro D. ↓, Moya P. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Garcia E. ⚽,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Recent form of Arenteiro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic Bilbao B is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arenteiro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Arenteiro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.82%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.01.26	Ferrol - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Pontevedra - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Arenteiro - Lugo	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Arenteiro - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTLLW
- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
16.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Ferrol - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
04.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
16.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenteiro	2:1
09.02.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenteiro	1:0
15.09.24	Arenteiro - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0

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