Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	4
	1.82	3.4	4.05
	1.79	3.55	4.35	Watch
	1.75	3	4.2
	1.84	3.47	4.2
	1.75	3.25	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)	3.33 ↓ (3.45)	4.19 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
51%

Draw
27.3%

Mérida AD
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

26.9%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

26.2%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 27. Pitarch T. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 8. Angel M. (C) 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 15. Martinez G. 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 21. Beneit R. 8. Solar M. 18. Dibrani B. 11. Areso J. 9. Garcia A. 7. Chiqui
Substitutes
23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 20. Fortuny P. 37. Gines A. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G)	14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 5. Dominguez J. 10. Doncel C. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
21', 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Yanez D. ⚽,
41', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pareja L. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
66', Dibrani B. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
76', Aguado D. 🟨,
82', Palacios C. ↓, Gines A. ↑,
82', Zuniga L. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
82', Chiqui ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
90', Solar M. ↓, Pipe ↑,
90+1', Angel M. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mérida AD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Zamora - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLWT
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.01.26	Mérida AD - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0
11.02.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:1
23.09.23	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.03.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	0:0
15.10.22	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1

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